Over the next month, as the 2020 Masters comes more into focus, values on the oddsboard will change drastically. As such, significant values we might be able to obtain on certain golfers will be erased once tee shots are in the air on Nov. 12. This always happens and is even more noticeable at big events like major championships.
You find yourself saying things like, “I wish I would have bet Justin Rose to win two months ago when he was 35-1 instead of the day before the tournament when he’s 18-1.” It’s an inevitability in golf when lines move around as much as they do because events are played weekly.
So instead of lamenting what could have been come the second week in November, let’s take a look right now at some players that represent value plays for the last major of 2020. Some long-ish shots who could actually win this golf tournament and might not be as long-ish in terms of odds the day before the first round.
Odds via William Hill Sportsbook
1. Matthew Wolff (33-1): People have not noticed yet, but Wolff is up to No. 12 in the world and is on a legit heater right now. If he wins one of the next few events, he’ll move up to 25-1 or 20-1 alongside Collin Morikawa, and you’ll wish you had his curling draws off those tees at Augusta National Golf Club. Buy low while you still can.
2. Louis Oosthuizen (40-1): Oosthuizen has several top 25s in a row and played quite well at the U.S. Open at Winged Foot. His jump won’t be as big as that of somebody like Wolff, but by the time the Masters is here, I can see oddsmakers remembering his record at majors and bumping him to 35-1.
3. Justin Rose (40-1): Rose might have the highest ceiling and lowest floor in terms of movement. He has not been great of late, but if he plays well over the next few weeks, you can combine that with his elite history at Augusta National and I could see his number being 28-1 or 30-1. That might not happen, of course, and he might drop to 50-1, but he’s a good one to get in on right now.
4. Xander Schauffele (18-1): This one will be fascinating. Schauffele has arguably been the best player in the world over the last three months, and he finished T2 at last year’s Masters. If he wins the CJ Cup this week or the Zozo Championship next week, his odds will be more like 14-1 or 12-1 for the Masters. He also probably has the most win equity of anyone on this list.
5. Sergio Garcia (50-1): A former champion coming off a win and playing better than he has in years at 50-1? Yes, I will take some of that. Garcia will probably settle around 40-1 when the week of the tournament gets here so get in at 50-1 as soon as possible.