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USATSI

The 2020 NBA Finals will continue on Tuesday with Game 4 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat at 9 p.m. ET in the NBA bubble in Orlando. The Lakers hold a 2-1 series lead, but the Heat finally have some momentum after Jimmy Butler’s dominant performance led them to victory in Game 3. Butler had 40 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds in a 115-104 victory despite Bam Adebayo (neck) and Goran Dragic (foot) missing the game.

Adebayo is expected to return in Game 4 and that would certainly give the Heat a boost as they look to level the series up. However, LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Los Angeles are 7.5-point favorites with the total set at 218.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds from William Hill. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Lakers picks for Game 4, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -7.5
  • Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 218.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -345, Heat +285
  • LAL: The Lakers are 5-3-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

An uncharacteristically sloppy game cost the Lakers in Game 3, as they lost the turnover battle 19-12 after winning that by a combined 38-21 total during the first two games of the series. Look for the Lakers to place an emphasis on protecting the ball and attacking the offensive glass against a smaller Heat lineup.

Davis had just 15 points in Game 3 after averaging 33.0 per game during the first two games of the series. Expect the Lakers to try to get Davis going early and test Adebayo’s effectiveness. And after all the talk about Butler being the first player to ever have more points, rebounds and assists than James in an NBA Finals game, look for a motivated LeBron to be heavily involved in all aspects of the game on Tuesday night.

Why the Heat can cover

Butler was almost unstoppable in Game 3, giving Miami all kinds of confidence for Game 4 and beyond. The All-NBA swingman finished with 40 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds in leading Miami to its first win of the series, and Butler is now averaging 29.3 points, 10.3 assists and 7.0 rebounds in the NBA Finals. Butler is also keying Miami’s efficiency, shooting 58 percent from the floor, 40 percent from 3-point range and 90 percent from the free-throw line. 

During the regular season, the Heat were one of the most efficient teams in the league, finishing third in effective field goal percentage, and Miami also generated a ton of free-throw attempts. The Heat topped the NBA in free-throw rate during the regular season, and Miami is second in the same stat among playoff teams. Defensively, the Heat have been a bit shaky in this series, but they were much more effective in Game 3, limiting the Lakers to one shot on 84.6 percent of possessions and holding Los Angeles to just 1.04 points per possession. Miami should be even stronger on that end if Adebayo is able to play effectively. 

How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total with the simulations showing no player scoring more than 29 points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.