The offense has been strong for the Jacksonville Jaguars through two weeks. On Thursday Night Football, it could be the defense’s turn to shine when the Jaguars take on the Miami Dolphins. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has the Jaguars averaging 30 points per game through two weeks, but the opponents are scoring 25, putting Jacksonville at 1-1. The Jags fought to the end with Tennessee before losing 33-30 on a late field goal last week, squandering momentum from a Week 1 upset of the Colts. Miami is 0-2 after losing 31-28 to the Bills.

Kickoff for Dolphins vs. Jaguars is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field, and Jacksonville will be without star receiver D.J. Chark (chest, back). The Jaguars are three-point favorites in the latest Dolphins vs. Jaguars odds at William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 49. Before locking in any Jaguars vs. Dolphins picks or NFL predictions, make sure you see what SportsLine’s all-time No. 1 NFL expert, Mike Tierney, has to say

A national sportswriter whose work appears in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He prefers to evaluate each game from the underdog’s point of view and has used that philosophy to dominate the NFL, going 66-44 against the spread in 2019 and 63-46 in 2018.

Tierney entered the 2020 season with a 282-222 record at SportsLine (2016-19) on all NFL picks, returning $3,704 to $100 players, is 10-3 in his past 13 NFL against-the-spread picks and hit all six of his Week 1 picks. He also has had a sharp eye for the tendencies of both the Dolphins and Jaguars, posting a stunning 19-7 record on against the spread picks for or against Miami and Jacksonville. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Tierney has locked in on Jaguars vs. Dolphins from every angle and released a confident against the spread pick. You can visit SportsLine now to see it. Here are several NFL betting lines from William Hill and trends for Dolphins vs. Jaguars:

  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars spread: Jacksonville -3
  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars over-under: 49
  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars money line: Miami +140, Jacksonville -160
  • MIA: WR DeVante Parker topped 70 yards receiving in six of the last seven games of 2019.
  • JAX: Scored touchdowns on six of seven trips to the red zone this season.

Why the Jaguars can cover

Jacksonville is 23-16-2 against the spread versus AFC opponents under Doug Marrone, and Minshew’s swagger hasn’t dissipated in his second season. The 2019 sixth-round pick has completed more than 75 percent of his passes and has thrown six touchdowns this season. Rookies Laviska Shenault and James Robinson have provided plenty of spark. 

The versatile Shenault, this year’s second-round pick, has 119 total yards on 13 touches for the Jags, who are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games in September.

Robinson, an undrafted running back, has rushed for 164 yards and could find openings in a Dolphins defense that is allowing 164 yards per game on the ground. Leading tackler Myles Jack and Joe Schobert make plays from their linebacker spots, while Josh Allen (10.5 sacks in 2019) can pressure the quarterback.

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine games following a straight-up loss, and the offense surpassed 400 yards as the Dolphins hung with the Bills. Fitzpatrick threw for 328 and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Tight end Mike Gesicki has been a valuable outlet for the veteran, with team highs of 11 receptions and 160 yards.

The Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against the AFC opponents, while running back Myles Gaskin also has been a bright spot. He is second on the team with 10 receptions and has 148 total yards in the two games. Former Bears 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Howard and ex-49er Matt Breida also will see carries. Defensive end Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah were major offseason upgrades, and they could make noise against a Jags line that has yielded six sacks.

How to make Dolphins vs. Jaguars picks

Tierney is leaning under on the total, and he’s also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s sharing it only at SportsLine

Who wins Jaguars vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Jaguars spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who’s brought in over $3,700 to $100 players, and find out.