Unlikely starting quarterbacks meet on Thursday Night Football when Gardner Minshew and the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) host Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins (0-2). Minshew, a sixth-round pick out of Washington State in 2019, played well enough last season to convince the Jaguars to trade Nick Foles to the Bears. Fitzpatrick, age 37, is on his eighth NFL team and currently holding off highly-touted rookie Tua Tagovailoa.
Jacksonville is a three-point favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Jaguars odds from William Hill, while the over-under is 48. Before locking in any Dolphins vs. Jaguars picks, make sure you see the latest Thursday Night Football predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,300 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 5-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 3 on an incredible 101-67 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Jaguars vs. Dolphins spread: Jacksonville -3
- Jaguars vs. Dolphins over-under: 48 points
- Jaguars vs. Dolphins money line: Jacksonville -160, Miami +140
- JAC: Jaguars are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games as the favorite
- MIA: Dolphins are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following a loss
Why the Jaguars can cover
Few expected the Jaguars to be tied with the Chiefs in average points per game (28.5) through two weeks, but that’s a reality entering Week 3. Minshew has settled into his full-time starter role extremely well. He was extremely efficient in a Week 1 win against the Colts, completing 19-of-20 passes for 173 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Minshew kept the Jags in it until the final minute against the Titans in Week 2, throwing for 339 yards and three scores in that game.
Jacksonville, which is off to a 2-0 start against the spread this year, doesn’t seem to regret its decision to cut running back Leonard Fournette shortly before the opener either. Undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has taken 32 carries for 164 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry in Week 2 against Tennessee and now faces a Miami defense that has given up 164 yards per game on the ground thus far in 2020.
Why the Dolphins can cover
After struggling in Miami’s season-opening loss at New England, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a much better performance against the Bills in Week 2. The 37-year-old completed 31-of-47 passes for 328 yards and a pair of touchdowns versus Buffalo following a contest in which he had just 191 yards with no TD tosses while getting picked off three times. In eight career games against Jacksonville, Fitzpatrick has thrown 13 scoring passes and just five interceptions.
The Dolphins were outgained 524-410 on Sunday and gave up 413 passing yards while recording 311. However, they received a stellar performance from tight end Mike Gesicki, who had eight catches for 130 yards, both career-highs, and a touchdown. The 24-year-old out of Penn State’s yardage total is the most in a game by a tight end in franchise history.
How to make Dolphins vs. Jaguars picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says both Minshew and Fitzpatrick will record close to 300 passing yards. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Jaguars vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Jaguars spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,300 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.