The model’s top 2020 NL Central picks
Pirates +30000 Cincinnati made a strong jump from 67 wins in 2018 to 75 in 2019 and made serious investments during the offseason. The Reds signed Moustakas to a four-year, million deal and gave a matching contract to former Cubs and Tigers outfielder Nick Castellanos. They also inked Akiyama to a three-year deal worth million.The model also says one team has a win probability that dramatically exceeds its implied odds. So before you scan the 2020 NL Central odds and make your 2020 MLB divisional picks, be sure to see it here.
How to make MLB divisional picks on 2020 NL Central odds
In 2019, the NL Central was a tight race, with the Cardinals, Brewers and Cubs all battling for the crown. Chicago fell off late to leave St. Louis and Milwaukee fighting it out before the Cardinals inevitably claimed the title. With all three expected to contend again and the Reds hoping to jump into the fray after an active offseason in which they signed Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Japanese star Shogo Akiyama to bolster their lineup, the 2020 NL Central race should be similarly competitive, and the 2020 NL Central odds reflect that.However, the Reds did very little to improve a bullpen that finished eighth-worst in the MLB in inherited runners scoring percentage (34) and had a collective ERA of 4.28. They also took a gamble on Wade Miley, whose FIP of 4.51 last season with the Astros was more than a half-run worse than his 3.98 ERA indicated. If Miley doesn’t pan out, they might not have the starting rotation depth needed behind Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer to compete in what looks like it might be the most tightly-contested division in baseball.
2020 NL Central odds
The model says the Reds are dramatically overvalued at +200 in the latest 2020 NL Central odds and win the division in just 18.2 percent of simulations.