I like the Chiefs to cover the spread on Sunday, but I must admit I don’t love it. Especially after talking to guys like Joe Montana on Radio Row and hearing them speak about how defense usually prevails in matchups like this. I’ll confess, I started swaying a little bit this week.

But ultimately, I think Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the world right now, and I believe he’s worth a couple of more points than the 49ers managed to score.

Who should you back against the spread and on the money line in the Super Bowl? And what will the exact final score be? Visit SportsLine to see their latest cheat sheet, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks. 

Chiefs vs. 49ers

Spread: Chiefs -1.5 | Total: 54

To me, the first quarter of this game will be imperative to who wins, as we find out which of these master play-callers can force the other through virtue of the scoreboard to have to shift a little bit from what they want to do. I think both teams come out throwing, and if Andy Reid has a couple of tricks to build an early lead, the 49ers might have trouble finding the kind of volume that they need in the run game to truly keep the other team quarterback off the field.

If the Chiefs can just mitigate the 49ers’ pass rush with a flurry of screens, sweeps, pitches and shovel passes, I think they’ll be fine. The lack of a traditional run game doesn’t really scare me.

I feel like one of the Chiefs’ secondary receivers is going to be able to go off. The 49ers’ secondary gives me some pause, and there’s only so many people you can double. Mecole Hardman is someone I think makes an impact, and ultimately the chief speed carries the day in what I suspect will be a relatively nip-and-tuck game all the way through.

The Pick Six Podcast featuring Will Brinson broke down the gambling angles for the Super Bowl on Friday’s blowout episode, with spread, total and prop picks from Pete Prisco and R.J. White, fun prop talk with Ryan Wilson and John Breech, plus DFS tips from Heath Cummings. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform:

I’ll say the Chiefs win by a field goal. And it won’t be the last time we see Patrick Mahomes on this stage by a long shot.

Pick: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

What are the top prop bets for the Super Bowl? And which prop pays 8-1? Visit SportsLine now to see the top prop bet predictions, all from a team of veteran experts and handicappers with decades of experience covering the NFL, and find more props analysis in our Ultimate Super Bowl Props Guide.