Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (10-6) attempt to pick up a postseason victory on Saturday afternoon when they visit Houston (10-6) to take on the Texans in the opening game of the 2020 NFL Playoffs. The No. 3 seed Texans, led by Deshaun Watson, will be comfortable in the setting of NRG Stadium in Houston, with kickoff set for 4:35 p.m. ET. Houston is a 2.5-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 43.5 in the latest Bills vs. Texans odds. Before locking in any Texans vs. Bills picks or NFL predictions, make sure you see what SportsLine expert Mike Tierney has to say.

No one knows football like Tierney. The veteran sportswriter, whose work has appeared in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, has covered football of all levels for decades. And that expertise has been evident since he joined SportsLine in 2016. He is 58-31 on his last 89 NFL picks for a profit of $2,391 to $100 bettors and is coming off a Week 17 in which he went 8-3 against the spread. He’s SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert this season, and anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, he has locked in on Texans vs. Bills in the AFC playoff bracket from every angle and released another confident against-the-spread pick. Go to SportsLine to see it. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Bills vs. Texans:

  • Texans vs. Bills spread: Texans -2.5
  • Texans vs. Bills over-under: 43.5 points
  • Texans vs. Bills money line: Texans -146, Bills +124
  • BUF: Bills are 6-1-1 against the spread on the road
  • HOU: Texans are 1-3 ATS in last four playoff games

Why the Bills can cover

Tierney knows that, while the Texans have plenty of firepower, the Bills are also talented on the offensive side. Allen enjoyed a fruitful season, improving his accuracy as a passer while becoming a capable steward of the offense. Allen is also a tremendous weapon with his feet, rushing for more than 500 yards and nine touchdowns, and he is joined by Devin Singletary (775 yards, 5.1 yards per carry) and Frank Gore (599 yards) in threatening opposing defenses. 

Buffalo is certainly keyed by its standout defense and that unit ranks as one of the NFL’s best by any overall metric. If the Bills can establish the running game and connect with John Brown (1,060 yards, six touchdowns) through the air, they’ll be well on their way to pulling the upset or at least staying within the spread. 

Why the Texans can cover

Still, Buffalo isn’t assured of covering the Texans vs. Bills spread in the NFL Playoffs 2020 on Saturday. Tierney also realizes that the Texans have the best player on the field in Watson. Not only is he a big-time threat through the air with more than 3,800 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, the former Clemson standout added 413 yards and seven scores on the ground.

It won’t be an easy day for the Texans’ offense, but with the Bills struggling to generate consistent scoring, Houston’s firepower could come in handy. Houston’s defense should also get a jolt with defensive end J.J. Watt (pectoral) expected to be active for the first time since Week 8.

How to make Texans vs. Bills picks

We can tell you Tierney is leaning under the total, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He’s found a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread hit hard on Saturday. He’s sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine. 

So who wins Texans vs. Bills? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Bills vs. Texans spread you should be all over on Saturday, all from the No. 1 expert who went 8-3 against the spread on his NFL picks.