It’s a battle of two of the AFC’s top defenses when the Buffalo Bills head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers have won three in a row since Devlin Hodges took over as quarterback and are firmly in the NFL playoff picture at 8-5 after a 23-17 victory at Arizona. The Bills come off a 24-17 loss to the Ravens, but allow just 16.3 points a game and are 9-4 with second-year quarterback Josh Allen running the offense. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Steelers vs. Bills odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 36.5. Before making any Bills vs. Steelers picks of your own, be sure to see the Sunday Night Football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 15 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 33-21 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an incredible 95-64 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has analyzed Steelers vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football. We can tell you the model is leaning under the total, and it has also generated a strong against the spread pick that hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the NFL lines and trends for Steelers vs. Bills:

  • Steelers vs. Bills spread: Pittsburgh -1.5
  • Steelers vs. Bills over-under: 36.5
  • Steelers vs. Bills money line: Pittsburgh -133, Buffalo +112
  • Steelers: WR James Washington has 11 catches of 20 yards or more.
  • Bills: RB Devin Singletary has rushed for at least 75 yards each time he has at least 15 carries.

The model has taken into account that the Steelers are 10-4-1 against the spread after a victory since 2018, and as in past years, the team’s strength is defense. The Steelers are fifth in the league in total yards allowed, giving up 310.9 per game. They have taken the ball away 33 times and are second in the NFL with a plus-12 turnover margin. Rookie linebacker Devin Bush has been a playmaker, leading the team with 88 tackles.

Hodges has been avoiding mistakes and doing just enough to win for Pittsburgh, which is 10-7-1 against the spread since 2018 in non-division games. Top receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) has been ruled out, while running back James Conner (shoulder) is questionable.

Pittsburgh’s strong defense will feed off the home crowd, but that doesn’t mean it will cover the Steelers vs. Bills spread on Sunday Night Football.

The Bills are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games following a straight-up loss, and they have an elite defense. The unit is third in the league in allowing 296.8 yards per game, 191.5 through the air. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and safety Jordan Poyer are the heavy-hitters, while Tre’Davious White is the playmaker. Edmunds leads the team with 97 tackles, while Poyer has 90 with an interception and two fumble recoveries. White has four interceptions and has forced two fumbles.

Allen has led an efficient offense for the Bills, who are 5-0-1 against the spread on the road this season. Singletary has emerged as the primary running back, rushing for 642 yards, with a 5.6 per-carry average. He has seven runs of more than 20 yards. Receiver John Brown also has become a key piece, catching 64 passes for 908 yards and five touchdowns, while slot man Cole Beasley has 59 receptions for 664 yards and six scores. 

So who wins Bills vs. Steelers on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Bills vs. Steelers spread you should be all over on Sunday, all from the model on a 95-64 roll on NFL picks.