With four weeks to go in the NFL regular season, only one playoff berth has been officially claimed, which means there are still 11 spots up for grabs. The only team that has already locked up a berth for the postseason is the New Orleans Saints, who clinched the NFC South title with a 26-18 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving night. As we head into Week 14, there are a total of six playoff spots that could be clinched with the 49ers, Seahawks, Ravens, Patriots, Bills and Chiefs all on the cusp of punching their ticket to the postseason (For a look at how each of those teams could end up clinching a spot, click here). 

So how will all of this play out? That’s where our projections come in. 

Each week, number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer, and that computer simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we project the 12-team playoff field and also the postseason chances for every team that’s still alive in the playoff race. 

Unfortunately, these playoff projections are basically meaningless to some fan bases out there. The Bengals, Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals, Falcons, and Giants have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, which means fans of those teams will probably have more fun clicking here and reading our latest mock drafts.

For everyone else, let’s get to the projections. 

Note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the rest of the regular season will play out. If you want to see the current playoff standings, click here to see Will Brinson’s thorough breakdown of what the playoff race looks like as we head into Week 14. For individual conference breakdowns, click here for a look at the AFC and click here for a look at the NFC

AFC Playoff Projection

Just missed: Titans (42.4% chance of getting into the playoffs)

Here’s a list of all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Raiders (9.1%), Colts (8.6%), Browns (3.0%), Jaguars (0.2%), Broncos (0.1%), Chargers (0.0%), Jets (0.0%), Dolphins (0.0%), Bengals (0.0%). 

NFC Playoff Projection

Just missed: Eagles (33.5% of making the playoffs), Rams (24.5%)

Here’s a list of all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Bears (4.4%), Redskins (0.1%), Buccaneers (0.1%), Panthers (0.0%), Lions (0.0%), Cardinals (0.0%), Falcons (0.0%), Giants (0.0%). 

Wild-card round projection


(6) Steelers at (3) Chiefs

(5) Bills at (4) Texans

Byes: Ravens, Patriots


(6) Vikings at (3) Packers

(5) 49ers at (4) Cowboys

Byes: Saints, Seahawks