The Denver Nuggets received a great deal of attention for all the wrong reasons on Tuesday, as the team suffered a home loss at the hands of Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. Less than 48 hours later, the Nuggets will be back in action in front of their home fans and, this time, the Brooklyn Nets will be in town. The Nets will be short-handed in this match-up, with Caris Levert (thumb) ruled out and uncertainty surrounding the status of Kyrie Irving (shoulder). On the Nuggets side, Malik Beasley (illness) will have his status monitored closely throughout the day. Tip-off is at 10:30 p.m. ET at the Pepsi Center. Sportsbooks list Denver as a 9-point home favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 223 in the latest Nuggets vs. Nets odds. Before you make any Nuggets vs. Nets picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

This model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns, finishing 300-252 on all its top-rated NBA picks. On top-rated NBA picks against the spread and on the money line alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280 last season. It also enters Week 4 of the 2019-20 NBA season on a 6-2 run on all top-rated NBA picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now it has locked in on Nuggets vs. Nets. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows that the Nets are a potent offensive team, particularly with Irving in the center of it all. Atlanta had big-time success riding its star point guard against Denver on Tuesday and, in short, Brooklyn may do the same with Irving, if he’s able to play. 

The All-Star guard is averaging a robust 29.7 points per game to this point in the campaign, and Irving is well known for his dynamic array of offensive abilities. The absence of Levert could be key for the Nets, but Brooklyn deploys a lot of shooters around Irving and the Nets can spread a Nuggets defense that sometimes struggles against varied offensive attacks.

Just because Brooklyn has a few edges, doesn’t mean it will cover the Nuggets vs. Nets spread on Thursday.

The model is also keenly aware that the Nuggets are the substantially better team on paper, and that is doubly true with Levert out of the mix. Denver should have a bit of desperation after a disappointing showing against Atlanta, and Nikola Jokic was one of the key reasons for that defeat. The All-NBA center hasn’t quite been himself this season, but Jokic is still averaging 17.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 6.1 assists. He is the fulcrum of an impressive offense and, with Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and others in the mix, the Nuggets should be able to take advantage of a Nets defense that has struggled to the tune of a bottom-five NBA ranking. 

On the other end, Denver matches up reasonably well with Brooklyn, even while acknowledging that the Nets’ best path to an upset comes via shootout. The Nuggets have a top-tier defender in Millsap to provide support in myriad ways, and Denver can utilize Harris as a “stopper” against Irving and/or Spencer Dinwiddie. Denver boasts a top-10 defensive rating in the NBA this season and, if they can slow Irving in any way, the Nets don’t have overwhelming firepower to make the home team pay on a regular basis. 

So who wins Nets vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nets vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.