Julius Randle and the New York Knicks will host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. This will be Kristaps Porzingis’ first time returning to the Madison Square Garden since last year’s blockbuster trade. Porzingis and the Mavs enter this game with a 6-4 record, while the Knicks stand at 2-9 and last in the East. Tip-off for this one is set for 8 p.m ET from the Garden. Sportsbooks list Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215 in the latest Mavericks vs. Knicks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Knicks picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.

Now it has locked in on Mavericks vs. Knicks. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also has a strong against-the-spread pick, saying one side cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model is well aware of just how dysfunctional this Knicks team has been. They’re dead last in the NBA in point differential and offensive efficiency. There are rumors swirling already that their GM is angling for Head Coach David Fizdale’s firing, and they’ve lost their last two games by a combined 39 points. 

Meanwhile, Doncic is playing at an MVP level for the Mavs. He’s nearly averaging a 30-point triple-double on the year — 28 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists, to be exact — and he’s elevated his play even further in November. In six November games, Doncic has averaged 31 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. The Knicks have no answer for the reigning Rookie of the Year, as evidenced by his 38-point triple-double against them just a week ago.

Just because Doncic has looked unstoppable lately, doesn’t mean Dallas will cover the Mavericks vs. Knicks spread on the road, however. 

The model is also well aware that the Knicks just beat the Mavs in Dallas. Despite New York’s 2-9 record, the Knicks have actually covered the spread at a higher rate than the Mavericks this season. A big contributor in New York’s win over Dallas was third-year guard Frank Ntilikina. After a disappointing start to his career, Ntilikina appears to be figuring things out in year three. He scored 14 points and contributed across the board for New York in the win over Dallas, adding six rebounds, four assists, four steals and three blocks. His ability to contribute in many areas has made Ntilikina one of New York’s most valuable players. 

Per cleaningtheglass.com, the Knicks’ plus-minus per-100 possessions with Ntilikina on the court is +4.8, which ranks only behind Randle. So, it should come as no surprise that the team has played more competitively since inserting Ntilikina into a larger role.

So who wins Knicks vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Knicks vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.