The Kansas City Chiefs look to get back on track when they host the Houston Texans in a key early-season NFL showdown at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs (4-1), who lead the AFC West, are coming off a 19-13 loss to Indianapolis, while the Texans (3-2), who are tied for first in the AFC South, have won three of their last four. Sunday’s kickoff from Kansas City is set for 1 p.m. ET, and the Chiefs lead the all-time series with the Texans, 5-4. Kansas City is a four-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Texans odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 55. Before making any Texans vs. Chiefs picks of your own, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 6 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 23-14 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an 85-57 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 5, it nailed the Rams (+1.5) staying within the spread against the Seahawks and the Texans (-4) covering with room to spare against the Falcons.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has dialed in on Chiefs vs. Texans. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it has an against the spread pick that cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The model knows the Chiefs are led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has completed 128-of-195 passes for 1,831 yards and 11 touchdowns. Mahomes has thrown for no fewer than 315 yards in any game this season. His best game was in Week 2, when he torched the Oakland Raiders for 443 yards and four touchdowns.

But just because Mahomes and company have a high-powered offense does not guarantee they will cover the Chiefs vs. Texans spread on Sunday. 

That’s because the Texans have also experienced plenty of success of late, appearing in the postseason five times since 2011. Houston has also had a winning record in four of the past five seasons and six of the past eight. The Texans have also won the AFC South in three of the past four years.

Offensively, the Texans are led by quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 1,364 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has been picked off just once. He has also carried the ball 22 times for 122 yards (5.5 average) and three touchdowns. Watson shredded the Falcons last week, completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards and five touchdowns.

So who wins Texans vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.