Pick: Twins 8, Yankees 6
As much as the Yankees have dominated the Twins this series and historically, I don’t believe the 2019 Twins will go down quietly. They were the best fastball hitting — and home run hitting — team in baseball during the regular season, and Severino relies heavily on his heater. The bet here is Minnesota’s Bomba Squad shows up in Game 3 and keeps the team’s season alive another day.
Severino missed nearly the entire regular season with shoulder and lat injuries, but he looked very good in his return late in the season, and theoretically has a fresh arm for October. Severino is still looking to get over the postseason hump, however. He owns a 6.26 ERA in six career postseason starts, and that includes allowing three runs while recording one out against the Twins in the 2017 AL Wild Card Game.

How to watch

The Twins have lost an MLB record 15 straight postseason games dating back to 2004. They are 2-15 against the Yankees all-time in October, and the two wins were started by peak Johan Santana. Since switching to the 2-2-1 LDS format two decades ago, 30 teams have won Games 1 and 2 at home, and 27 have gone on to win the series.

Preview

Date: Monday, Oct. 7 | Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Location: Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
TV: FS1 | StreamfuboTV (Try for free)
Odds: NYY -142 | MIN +132 | O/U: 9
Starting pitchers: RHP Jake Odorizzi (MIN) vs. RHP Luis Severino (NYY)
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Now, let’s set the scene with some essentials. 

Prediction

Thanks to a high-powered offensive attack, the New York Yankees have a 2-0 series over the Minnesota Twins in the best-of-five ALDS. The series has shifted from Yankee Stadium to Target Field with the Twins trying to fend off elimination.
It has been an ugly few days for the Twins, who have seen their bullpen allow 13 runs in 10 innings in the ALDS. Odorizzi, their Game 3 starter, allowed nine runs in 10 innings against the Yankees during the regular season, and is the type of fly ball prone pitcher who doesn’t match up particularly well with New York’s lineup. They elevate and celebrate. Twins closer Taylor Rogers has not yet pitched in the ALDS. He might be the first man out of the bullpen in Game 3.