Top NFC playoff contenders try to rebound from their first losses of the season when the Green Bay Packers visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Green Bay lit it up through the air but couldn’t keep up with the Eagles in a 34-27 loss, while the Saints shut down the Cowboys, defeating them 12-10. The Packers have had the Cowboys’ number in recent years, winning seven of the past eight meetings, including the playoffs. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium. Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Cowboys vs. Packers odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 47. Before locking in your Packers vs. Cowboys picks, you should see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it’s simulated Packers vs. Cowboys 10,000 times. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it has also generated a strong against the spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that the Cowboys stumbled in their Sunday night matchup in New Orleans, as Ezekiel Elliott was held to 35 rushing yards, but the Cowboys still average 143 yards on the ground per game. They should find room to run against the Packers, who allowed 176 rushing yards last week and rank 26th in the league, allowing 142.2 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Dak Prescott is having a standout season, completing 72.4 percent of his passes for 1,143 yards and nine touchdowns, while wide receiver Amari Cooper has 21 receptions for 286 yards and four touchdowns.
The Cowboys’ defense is allowing only 14 points and 318.5 yards per game and has been stingy in the red zone, allowing touchdowns only 35.7 percent of the time. Defensive ends Robert Quinn and DeMarcus Lawrence, who have combined for 5.5 sacks, provide the pressure for a defense that allows just 221.8 passing yards per game. Dallas will be able to key on the pass, as Aaron Rodgers has carried the load for a team that is 26th in the league in rushing at just 86.2 yards per game.
But just because Dallas is at home doesn’t mean it will cover the Cowboys vs. Packers spread on Sunday.
Rodgers threw for 422 yards in last week’s loss as Green Bay all but abandoned the running game and has 1,069 yards and six touchdowns this season. He could be without standout receiver Davante Adams, who had a career-high 180 yards last week, but left with a toe injury. That means Marquez Valdes-Scantling (16 catches, 217 yards) and tight end Jimmy Graham (9 for 91) will need to contribute even more.
Green Bay’s defense is anchored by linebackers Blake Martinez (team-high 47 tackles, 1 sack) and Preston Smith (4.5 sacks, 1 interception). The Packers struggle against the run but allow only 330.2 yards and 17.2 points per game. Also in the Packers’ favor: the Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread in their past four against teams with a winning record.
So who wins Packers vs. Cowboys? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Cowboys spread you should be all over on Sunday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks, and find out.