A chaotic Week 4 has left the NFL with plenty of .500 football teams and the New England Patriots appear to be the only team that doesn’t have a weakness through four games (don’t come after me Chiefs fans) … and the Pats almost fell to the Buffalo Bills to put things in total chaos. The Detroit Lions were a fourth-and-8 stop away from upsetting Kansas City, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put up 55 points against the Los Angeles Rams, the Baltimore Ravens gave up 500-plus yards for the second straight week, and the New Orleans Saints didn’t score a touchdown, but still beat the Dallas Cowboys. 

What will Week 5 bring in the never ending drama that is the NFL? The NFC has only one unbeaten team, the San Francisco 49ers, while the Chiefs and Patriots remain the lone unbeatens in the AFC. Oh, there are 13 teams that are 2-2, including the entire AFC South (the only division since the merger in 1970 to have each team at 2-2 through four games). 

With the crazy NFL games, last week was a rough one in the picks department (had it coming after a 12-4 week). The top games on the NFL slate this weeks are the Green Bay Packers facing the Dallas Cowboys, the Cleveland Browns facing the San Francisco 49ers, and the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Carolina Panthers. 

Let’s get to those picks! 

Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network)
Line:
Seahawks -1.5

The Rams weren’t expected to be tied with the Seahawks heading into this Thursday Night Football showdown, but that’s how the NFC West sits after L.A. allowed 55 points to the Buccaneers. The Rams’ success lies with their running game, especially giving Todd Gurley the ball, which they haven’t done consistently all season. Gurley had just five carries, the same amount as Malcolm Brown, last week as the Rams ran the ball just 11 times. That has to improve if the Rams are going to challenge a Seahawks defense that has allowed just 79.5 rushing yards a game (sixth in NFL). Gurley has just 49 carries through four games. A Thursday on a short week would be a good time for head coach Sean McVay to unleash him. The Seahawks will look to keep the Rams offense off the field as Chris Carson has apparently seized the No. 1 running back job. Thanks to Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are first in completion percentage to keep the run game balanced. Bottom line in this one, give Gurley the ball. I think the Rams will.

Pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 24

What picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line:
Panthers -3.5

There are many 2-2 teams that are hard to figure out, and these are two of them. The Jaguars have received strong quarterback play from Gardner Minshew, who has led them from an 0-2 start to a tie for first place in the AFC South. Jacksonville now has a running game after Leonard Fournette rushed for 225 yards last week (he’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry). Jacksonville and Carolina have accumulated a lot of sacks this year, something to watch in this affair. Minshew and Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen both have had games which they fumbled three times, a major factor. The quarterback that turns the ball over the least will win. My money is on Minshew, no matter how well Allen has played. 

Pick: Jaguars 26, Panthers 24 

Brady Quinn joined Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down their quarterly award selections. Check out the full show in the player below and be sure to subscribe right here to get daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums on the reg.

New England Patriots (4-0) at Washington Redskins (0-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line:
Patriots -15.5

Talk about a mismatch. The Patriots may be the best team in the NFL while the Redskins are making the case they are the worst team in the NFL. Dwayne Haskins wasn’t any better than Case Keenum (who was benched last week) as the Redskins could only muster three points against a bad Giants defense. Now the Washington will be facing a Patriots defense that is first in points allowed (6.8) and yards allowed (243.0). The Redskins are 31st in the league in rushing while the Patriots are second in rush yards allowed. This is a mismatch, and Jay Gruden may coach his last game Sunday.

Pick: Patriots 38, Redskins 10 

Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line:
Titans -3

Could the Bills actually be better than we thought? Buffalo showed it will be a factor in the AFC playoff picture with a six-point loss to the Patriots, holding their high-powered offense to 16 points. The Bills defense is legit, allowing just 15.8 points (fifth in NFL) and 280.2 yards (second). They also allow just 196.5 pass yards (fourth) and 84.2 rush yards (seventh). Marcus Mariota — the only starting quarterback who hasn’t thrown an interception through four games — will have to test the Bills defense if the Titans are going to hold serve at home. Derrick Henry (310 yards, three TD, 4.0 YPC) should be getting the ball early, but the Bills defense will be keying in on him. Can they score enough points?

Pick: Bills 20, Titans 19

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line:
Ravens -3.5

The Ravens defense needs some work. Baltimore has allowed 500-plus yards in consecutive weeks, both of which resulted in losses as the Ravens squandered first place in the AFC North. As good as Baltimore’s offense is (first in points and yards per game), the Ravens are 23rd in points allowed (25.0) and 27th in yards allowed (395.5). Baltimore allows seven yards per play (last in NFL) and 8.6 yards per pass. Pittsburgh may be what the doctor ordered. It’s hard to put too much stock in what the Steelers did against the Bengals since Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is still 29th in yards per game (283.5) and 30th in third down conversion (27.27%). The Steelers need to hold the Ravens to under 25 points to have a shot in this one. They certainly haven’t proved they can score over 25 against teams not named the Bengals, and won’t do it here either. 

Pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 21 

Arizona Cardinals (0-3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line:
Bengals -3.5

The Cardinals rely on a tempo offense, but they have stretches where they are notoriously bad. This has been in common theme in Year One of the Kliff Kingsbury-Kyler Murray experiment, with an offense that averages just 4.9 yards per play (28th) and 18.5 points (25th). Believe it or not, the Bengals may actually be worse. Cincinnati is averaging just 14.2 points (30th) and is dead last in the league in rushing (49.5). The Bengals have thrown the ball the second-most times in the NFL because they are always trailing in the second half. Will the Cardinals be more consistent this week and be able to hold a lead, assuming they get one. I think they will.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Bengals 23

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Houston Texans (2-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line:
Texans -5

The Texans are coming off a tough loss to the Panthers, but are one of the better 2-2 teams. While the offense is averaging just 19.5 points and 329.2 yards (both 22nd in NFL), the defense is 10th in points allowed (19.5) and 17th in yards allowed (363.5). The Texans are getting by thanks to the play of Deshaun Watson (938 yards, six TD, one INT, three rushing TDs), despite getting sacked 18 times. Watson shouldn’t have issues getting sacked this week against a Falcons defense that has just five through four games. Devonta Freeman is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and Matt Ryan has six interceptions. Could be a long day for the Falcons. 

Pick: Texans 31, Falcons 21 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line:
Saints -3.5

The battle for first place in the NFC South is on as a Buccaneers win would put them at the top of the division. Tampa Bay just put up 55 points on the Rams as Jameis Winston has thrown 765 yards and seven touchdowns over his last two games. The Saints defense will be tested against the Buccaneers wide receivers, as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin each have over 368 yards and four touchdowns. While the Saints defense carried them to a win over the Cowboys last week, the offense didn’t score a touchdown and won a game for the first time since 1998. Teddy Bridgewater has been a fine game manager, but the Saints will need more from Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray on the ground if they are to keep up with the Buccaneers offense. Fortunately, Tampa allows 29.2 points per game — despite the defense looking better this year. Look for the Saints to win a shootout.

Pick: Saints 32, Buccaneers 27

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line:
Vikings -5.5

Hard to believe the Giants have the same record as the Vikings through four games, but here we are. The good news for the Vikings this week? Kirk Cousins isn’t facing a team with a winning record. The Vikings need to go back to the run game, no matter how much they need to open up the offense. There’s a way they can do that against the Giants. Get Cousins comfortable with short, quick passes (against a pass defense allowing 8.8 yards per pass, 31st in NFL) then lean toward the run when getting an early lead. The Vikings will need to get off to a fast start to slow down Daniel Jones and an offense averaging 28 points per game with Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. Jones has thrown two interceptions and has taken five sacks through two games, which the Vikings pass rush (11 sacks, 25 QB hits) can expose. 

Pick: Vikings 23, Giants 20

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-2) (in London)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line:
Bears -4.5

Hard to predict the way these games in London are going to go, but how can anyone go against what the Bears defense is doing to opposing offenses right now. Chicago allows just 11.2 points per game (second in NFL) and 290.8 yards per game (fifth in NFL) as opponents allowing 4.5 yards per play (fifth in NFL). The Bears have 17 sacks, 27 quarterback hits, and seven forced fumbles in four games, an impressive amount for an elite defense. The Raiders will be an interesting test despite ranking 21st in points (19.8) and yards (335.8). The Bears defense will have to step up since Chicago will be starting Chase Daniel for a few games, who managed the game well in a win over the Vikings last week. Chicago needs to get its run game going to give Daniel a chance, but hard to pick against this defense.

Pick: Bears 16, Raiders 14 

New York Jets (0-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line:
Eagles -14

The Eagles appear to have rebounded from back-to-back losses with an upset victory over the Packers in a short week on the road. Now Philadelphia has 10 days to get ready for a Jets team that averages 11 points per game (31st in NFL) and 196.7 yards a game (dead last). Philadelphia can put New York away early by committing to the run game again and allowing Carson Wentz to make plays by managing the game. Wentz can easily carry the Eagles, but he doesn’t have to … especially if Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders getting a combined 25 carries a game. The Eagles’ secondary is banged up with two of their top three cornerbacks out (potentially three of their top four), but Luke Falk is a third-string quarterback for a reason. Don’t expect him to light the Eagles’ pass defense up.

Pick: Eagles 35, Jets 13

Denver Broncos (0-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line:
Chargers -6.5

How bad are the Broncos? Denver did lose two games on a walk-off field goal, but the Broncos aren’t getting the quarterback play they anticipated from Joe Flacco, even though they are averaging 248.8 yards per game (15th in NFL). Flacco only has five passing touchdowns in the first quarter of the season, which could attribute why the Broncos have a minus-23 scoring differential and are not 2-2 like nearly a quarter of the league. The Chargers have been dynamic with Austin Ekeler, but are getting Melvin Gordon back in a much-needed boost for the offense already averaging 403.8 yards per game (fifth in NFL) and 6.4 yards per game (fourth). Gordon will instantly improve the red zone offense for the Chargers, which will make a difference against the Broncos. 

Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 20

Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line:
Cowboys -3.5

The Cowboys are a good football team, but it’s hard to know how good they actually are since they did lose to the only team they’ve faced that wasn’t named the Giants, Redskins or Dolphins. Dallas was only able to muster 10 points against a New Orleans defense that allows 391.2 yards per game. Fortunately for the Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott will be facing a Packers run defense that allowed 176 rushing yards to the Eagles last week. The Cowboys need to feed Elliott and give him 25-plus carries this week, while mixing in some Tony Pollard. Let Dak Prescott manage the game. The Packers have to commit to the run as well, even if Aaron Jones is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Green Bay isn’t expected to have Davante Adams this week, so Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will have to carry the passing game. If Green Bay can improve its red zone offense (64.29%, 3-for-7 last week), the Packers will find a way to steal a win in Dallas … even with the Adams injury. 

Pick: Packers 27, Cowboys 20

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Line:
Chiefs -10.5

The Chiefs survived a scare in Detroit as Patrick Mahomes had to bail Kansas City out of a 4th-and-8 with under two minutes left and led them to a game-winning touchdown drive. Mahomes and the Chiefs still have an NFL record with 22 consecutive games over 25 points, which is likely to continue against a Colts defense that allows 25.5 points. Indianapolis was gashed against the run in a loss to Oakland last week, and this is a good spot for LeSean McCoy (5.4 yards per carry) to have a breakout game with his new team. The Chiefs run offense has struggled, putting all the pressure on Mahomes. Having Damien Williams back will be huge if he can play. 

Pick: Chiefs 34, Colts 24

Cleveland Browns (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Line:
49ers -3.5

This is one of the better Monday Night Football games on the calendar this year as the upstart Browns look to build off last week’s win, while the 49ers are the only unbeaten team in the NFC. San Francisco has beaten teams with a combined record of 3-9, making the Browns their first true test coming off the bye week. Easy to buy into the 49ers, since they are averaging 32 points (third in NFL) and 421 yards (fourth) while ranking eighth in points allowed (18.0) and third in yards allowed (283.3). The Browns put up 530 yards against the Ravens in a win last week, giving Baker Mayfield short, quick throws to get into a rhythm and allowing Nick Chubb (165 yards, three touchdowns) to carry the offense early and often. Cleveland shouldn’t divert from that game plan, even though San Francisco allows just 3.4 yards a carry and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this year. If San Fran can stop Chubb, Cleveland could be in trouble with that offensive line. 

Pick: 49ers 24, Browns 21

KERR’S RECORD (Week 4): 6-9
KERR’S RECORD (Overall): 37-25-1 (.587 win percentage)
Week 5 Bye: Detroit LionsMiami Dolphins