That latter part is key, as teams almost always go into a best-of-seven series with a four-man rotation, as opposed to the five-man alignment that holds sway during the regular season.
For the uninitiated, here’s how to read what you see above:
What constitutes a good bet? If the SportsLine Projection System gives a team better odds of hoisting the trophy than the oddsmakers do, then it’s a sound play. Speaking of all that, let’s take a look at current World Series odds and the current sim percentage (i.e., the percentage chance SportsLine gives a given team to win it all). Just teams that won the World Series in at least one of those thousands of simulations are included.
18/1, 5.3% 9/2, 18.2%
|Team||World Series odds||SportsLine World Series Sim %|
|1.63%||Again, this is the nature of the sport. Since 1900, just 10 MLB teams have managed a winning percentage of at least .700. In the NBA, you’ve had 11 teams register a regular season winning percentage of .700 or higher since 2015. In the NFL, you’ve had 13 such teams over the last three seasons alone. You get the idea: The best teams in MLB don’t dominate all comers to the extent that great teams in the NBA and NFL do. That shows up in the playoffs, and that’s why it’s wise to avoid the heavy favorites in the World Series. The 2019 Fall Classic figures to be no exception, as the numbers above suggest.||Again, this is the nature of the sport. Since 1900, just 10 MLB teams have managed a winning percentage of at least .700. In the NBA, you’ve had 11 teams register a regular season winning percentage of .700 or higher since 2015. In the NFL, you’ve had 13 such teams over the last three seasons alone. You get the idea: The best teams in MLB don’t dominate all comers to the extent that great teams in the NBA and NFL do. That shows up in the playoffs, and that’s why it’s wise to avoid the heavy favorites in the World Series. The 2019 Fall Classic figures to be no exception, as the numbers above suggest.||30/1, 3.2%|
|One such example of an MLB future is the World Series and the odds on who ultimately wins it. At this relatively late hour of the season, the World Series odds have mostly stabilized, but with an assist from the SportsLine Projection System you can still find the best place to put your money.||0.10%||0.10%||0.10%||6.70%|
|60/1, 1.6%||Get NFL and college football picks from 10,000 simulations, optimal DFS lineups, proven Fantasy cheat sheets and expert predictions for football, basketball, baseball, golf, MMA, horse racing and so much more. Join SportsLine today and use promo code TROPHY to get your first month for only . Get every pick now!||12.51%|
|25/1, 3.8%||Cardinals||So what opportunities do you see above? Here’s what SportsLine MLB expert John Bollman says about the numbers you see above:|
|“We run the entire season, determine simulated playoff seeds, and then simulate playoff rounds thousands of times to determine each team’s simulation based odds,” Oh continues. “We compare our simulation odds to the implied betting probabilities from the sportsbook’s odds and calculate what teams and bets are the best values.”||9/4, 30.8%||Red Sox|
|“The thing that stands out to me is the Sim % relative to the World Series odds for both the Indians and the Nationals. These are the only two teams providing positive value. It is also interesting to note that both the Dodgers and Astros are not good betting value at the current odds, according to the sims.||1.02%||1.02%||5/2, 28.6%|
|“The projection model is a Monte Carlo Simulation,” explains SportsLine’s Stephen Oh, who designed the system. “It simulates every plate appearance based on advanced proprietary metrics to simulate a single game. We then repeat the game simulation thousands of times to calculate each team’s percent chance of winning, covering the spread, over/under, etc. in that single game. We run this for every scheduled game and every possible playoff matchup — every team versus every other team based on their expected playoff pitcher rotation.”||30/1, 3.2%||10/1, 9.1%|
- The “World Series odds” column are each team’s odds of winning the World Series according to bookmakers. Those odds are translated into percentages for ease of comparison.
- The “SportsLine World Series Sim %” column tells you how often each team won the World Series in those thousands of sims conducted by the SportsLine Projection Model.
- If a team’s World Series odds percentage exceeds their SportsLine World Series Sim %, they’re probably not a great bet. That’s because oddsmakers think they’re more likely to win it all that the SportsLine Projection System does.
- Conversely, if a team’s SportsLine World Series Sim % is the higher of the two figures, then they’re a solid World Series bet. That’s because SportsLine sees that team as being underestimated by oddsmakers.