The San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies will try to keep pace with the Wild Card leaders in the National League when the two teams face off on Sunday Night Baseball at Oracle Park. San Francisco (58-60), which beat the Phillies 3-1 on Saturday, is four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the second NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, Philadelphia (60-57) is one-and-a-half games behind Milwaukee. Jake Arrieta (8-8, 4.41 ERA), pitching with a bone spur in his elbow, is set to start for the Phillies. The Giants will counter with Conner Menez (0-1, 5.73), a left-handed rookie making his third career start. First pitch from Oracle Park is set for 7:08 p.m. ET, and the over-under for total runs scored is nine. The Phillies are slight -112 sportsbook favorites on the money line, up from an open of -106, while the Giants are fetching -102 in the latest Giants vs. Phillies odds. Before making your Phillies vs. Giants picks, you should see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 20 of the MLB season on a sizzling 35-23 run on top-rated MLB money line picks, returning over $1,400 on the season to $100 bettors. Anybody who has been following it is way up.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Giants vs. Phillies. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can see that pick only at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that the Giants have been the better team in the first three games of the series. San Francisco, which has won two of the first three contests, is hitting .271 with an OPS of .873 and has scored 14 runs in this series. On the other hand, Philadelphia is batting just .154 with a .504 OPS and has just 10 runs. Nine of those came in the Phillies’ 9-6 victory two nights ago.
The model also knows that Philadelphia’s bullpen can’t be trusted if Arrieta can’t get deep into the game. Since revealing he has a bone spur in his elbow, Arrieta hasn’t gone beyond 5.2 innings. Once he’s out of the game, the Phillies will be forced to turn to a relief corps that has a lackluster 4.73 ERA, which is 23rd in MLB.
But just because San Francisco seems to have the edge on paper doesn’t guarantee it’s the best value on the Giants vs. Phillies money line.
The model has also considered that Philadelphia will be facing a rookie making his third career start. Menez gave up five runs on six hits, including two homers, in a 5-3 loss to the Nationals in his last start. Through two games, he has a WHIP of 1.27.
The model also has factored in that the Phillies’ Corey Dickerson is on a roll. Since July 15, he is hitting .407 with a 1.266 OPS, five home runs and 14 RBIs. And since being traded to Philadelphia at the trade deadline, he is batting .360 with a 1.160 OPS.
So who wins Phillies vs. Giants on Sunday Night Baseball? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Phillies vs. Giants money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.