Still in the thick of the NL Wild Card chase, the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies close out their four-game series in the Bay Area with a Sunday Night Baseball showdown. After winning 3-1 on Saturday afternoon, the Giants (58-60) have taken two of the first three games in the series. They are now four games back of the second NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Phillies (60-57) are 1.5 games back of the second NL Wild Card spot. Jake Arrieta (8-8, 4.41 ERA) takes the mound for Philadelphia and will face rookie lefty Conner Menez (0-1, 5.73), who will make his third career start. First pitch from Oracle Park is set for 7:08 p.m. ET. The Giants are slight -106 sportsbook favorites, with the Phillies fetching -104 in the latest Giants vs. Phillies odds. Before making your Giants vs. Phillies picks and MLB predictions, you have to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 20 of the MLB season on a sizzling 35-23 run on top-rated MLB money line picks, returning over $1,400 on the season to $100 bettors. Anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Giants vs. Phillies. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can see that pick only at SportsLine. 

The model knows that San Francisco has outplayed Philadelphia so far this series. The Giants are batting .271, have an OPS of .873 and have scored 14 runs through the first three games. Meanwhile, the Phillies are hitting just .154 with a .504 OPS and have scored just 10 runs in the series (nine of them in their 9-6 win on Friday). 

The model also has taken into account that Arrieta is pitching with a bone spur in his right elbow that may require surgery after the season. Because of the pain in his elbow, he can’t be trusted to pitch deep into games; he hasn’t gone beyond 5.2 innings since June 30. That’s bad news for a Phillies bullpen that ranks 23rd in the majors with a 4.73 ERA.

But just because San Francisco seems to have the edge on paper doesn’t guarantee it’s the best value on the Giants vs. Phillies money line.

The model has also considered that Philadelphia will be facing a rookie making his third career start. Menez gave up five runs on six hits, including two homers, in a 5-3 loss to the Nationals in his last start. Through two games, he has a WHIP of 1.27.

The model also has factored in that the Phillies’ Corey Dickerson is on a roll. Since July 15, he is hitting .407 with a 1.266 OPS, five home runs and 14 RBIs. And since being traded to Philadelphia at the trade deadline, he is batting .360 with a 1.160 OPS. 

So who wins Phillies vs. Giants on Sunday Night Baseball? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Phillies vs. Giants money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.