The 2019 Northern Trust marks the first event in the 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs with the action set to get underway Thursday at Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, N.J. This course has regularly been ranked among the tougher ones on tour, providing a big challenge for a loaded field comprised of most of the top-125 ranked PGA golfers. Possible high winds this weekend could lead to some unexpected results as well. The latest 2019 Northern Trust odds have just one player, Brooks Koepka (8-1), in single digits. Rory McIlroy isn’t far behind at 10-1, but then the PGA odds get long with nobody else going off lower than 16-1. With plenty of contenders in the field and 2,000 FedEx Cup points on the line for the winner, be sure to see PGA predictions from SportsLine’s proven golf model before locking in any 2019 Northern Trust picks of your own. 

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend. It predicted Gary Woodland’s first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn’t the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he’d hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, their advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, and anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now that the 2019 Northern Trust field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Koepka, a four-time major winner and the top favorite to win it all this week, makes a strong push but falls short of capturing the title.

The No. 1 player in the world enters the Northern Trust 2019 as the FedEx Cup points leader after an impressive season that saw him register the most wins on Tour. Koepka also earned eight top-10 finishes this season and made the top five in all four majors. 

Despite his dominant season, Koepka has failed to land on top of the leaderboard in back-to-back tournaments throughout his career. In fact, he’s finished in the top 15 just once in the last two years after winning his previous start. Plus, Koepka has had trouble finding the fairway off the tee this season. He enters the first tournament of the FedEx Cup 2019 ranked 96th in driving accuracy percentage (62.39), which could cause trouble at Liberty National. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field.

Another surprise: Justin Rose, a 20-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. The model projects that he’ll finish in the top 10, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Rose is no stranger to success in big tournaments. He’s finished T-3 or better in all four majors at some point in his career and won the 2013 U.S. Open. His odds are a bit longer after finishing outside the top 10 in his last two starts, but don’t let those recent results deceive you. He’s No. 4 in the Official World Golf Rankings and has been extremely consistent outside of missing the cut at Augusta earlier this year. 

His 2018-19 PGA Tour campaign has included six top-10 finishes, including a win at the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Additionally, he finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open and the Players Championship. Even though he’s hitting just 64.56 percent of greens in regulation this season, he still ranks inside the top 15 on tour in scoring average (69.527) and sand save percentage (60.67), so his precision around the green gives him the tools he needs to climb the 2019 Northern Trust leaderboard quickly. 

Also, the model says four other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the first tournament of the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Northern Trust leaderboard from the model that’s nailed six golf majors heading into the weekend, and find out.

Brooks Koepka 8-1
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Dustin Johnson 16-1
Webb Simpson 16-1
Jon Rahm 18-1
Justin Rose 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Tiger Woods 22-1
Justin Thomas 22-1
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1
Rickie Fowler 25-1
Jason Day 33-1
Collin Morikawa 33-1
Xander Schauffele 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Francesco Molinari 40-1
Adam Scott 40-1
Byeong Hun-An 50-1
Bryson DeChambeau 50-1
Tony Finau 50-1
Matt Kuchar 50-1
Patrick Reed 50-1
Jordan Spieth 50-1