The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres look to finish their season series on a high note when they meet on Thursday. The Padres (46-49) have won six of their last 10 against the Marlins (35-58) and are 5-5 in their last 10 at Miami. The Marlins, 17-32 at home, are 3-7 in their last 10 home games. The game is scheduled to start at 12:10 p.m. ET from Marlins Park in Miami. The Padres are favored at -116 on the money line, meaning a $116 wager would net $100. That’s up slightly from an open of -115. The over-under for total runs scored is 7.5 in the latest Padres vs. Marlins odds, the second-lowest of any game on Thursday’s MLB schedule. You’ll want to see the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model before entering any Padres vs. Marlins picks of your own.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 17 of the MLB season on a sizzling 22-7 run on top-rated MLB money line picks, returning almost $1,900 on the season for $100 bettors. Anybody who has been following it is way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Padres vs. Marlins. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows that despite its struggles this season, Miami has put together several stretches of productive baseball and has a statistical advantage over the Padres in a number of categories, including ERA (4.31 to 4.64), opponents’ batting average (.244 to .254) and errors committed (50 to 64).
Second baseman Starlin Castro has an 11-game hitting streak, raising his average 23 points in that span. He is 20-for-47 with two doubles, two triples, two homers and six RBIs during the streak, which included a 2-for-5 performance with a triple and three RBIs on Tuesday against the Padres. His homer on Wednesday broke up Chris Paddack’s bid for a no-hitter.
But just because Miami has played well against San Diego this season does not mean it is the best value on the Padres vs. Marlins money line.
That’s because the Padres have historically fared well against the Marlins. San Diego leads the all-time series 102-94, including a 53-49 edge in games played in Miami. The Padres are 4-1-1 in season series against the Marlins since 2013 and have a 13-11-2 advantage all-time. Statistically, the Padres also have the edge in a number of offensive categories, including slugging percentage (.429 to .364), runs scored (421 to 334), home runs (146 to 75), total bases (1,353 to 1,140) and RBIs (407 to 329).
Right fielder Hunter Renfroe has swung a hot bat against the Marlins this season, going 6-for-13 with three homers and four RBIs in his first four games against them.
So who wins Padres vs. Marlins? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the money line you should be all over on Thursday, all from the advanced model on a 22-7 roll, and find out.