Two teams in need of a win meet in the finale of a three-game series on Thursday when the San Diego Padres visit the Miami Marlins. The Padres (46-49) have lost four of five and are 4-6 in their last 10 games, while the Marlins (35-58) are 3-4 in their last seven and 3-8 in July. First pitch from Marlins Park in Miami is set for 12:10 p.m. ET. Miami has won three of five in the series this season, including three of the last four. The latest Padres vs. Marlins odds show San Diego favored at -118 on the money line (risk $118 to win $100), while the over-under for total runs scored is 7.5. Before making any Padres vs. Marlins picks of your own, be sure to see the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 17 of the MLB season on a sizzling 22-7 run on top-rated MLB money line picks, returning almost $1,900 on the season for $100 bettors. Anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Padres vs. Marlins. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows left-hander Caleb Smith (5-4, 3.46 ERA) gets the start for Miami. In his second start since returning from the Injured List, Smith pitched six innings, striking out six and allowing three hits and just two runs in an 8-4 win over the New York Mets on Friday. When he last faced the Padres on May 31, he struck out eight and gave up two runs through five innings. Marlins starting pitchers have given up just 10 earned runs in 27 innings against the Padres this season, a 3.33 ERA. 

Right fielder Garrett Cooper has been red-hot against the Padres this season, going 6-for-19 with seven runs scored, two walks, two homers and five RBIs in five games against them.

But just because Miami has played well against San Diego this season does not mean it is the best value on the Padres vs. Marlins money line.

That’s because the Padres have historically fared well against the Marlins. San Diego leads the all-time series 102-94, including a 53-49 edge in games played in Miami. The Padres are 4-1-1 in season series against the Marlins since 2013 and have a 13-11-2 advantage all-time. Statistically, the Padres also have the edge in a number of offensive categories, including slugging percentage (.429 to .364), runs scored (421 to 334), home runs (146 to 75), total bases (1,353 to 1,140) and RBIs (407 to 329).

Right fielder Hunter Renfroe has swung a hot bat against the Marlins this season, going 6-for-13 with three homers and four RBIs in his first four games against them.

So who wins Padres vs. Marlins? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the money line you should be all over on Thursday, all from the advanced model on a 22-7 roll, and find out.

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