The lone MLB game on Thursday features the rival Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, who return from the All-Star break by starting a four-game series at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Astros, who had six players selected to the AL All-Star team, enter the series with a 7.5-game lead in the AL West over Oakland. The Rangers are nine games back. Lefty Framber Valdez (3-4, 4.57 ERA) is expected to be called up from Triple-A Round Rock to take the mound for the Astros. He’ll face Texas starter Lance Lynn (11-4, 3.91), who is tied with Lucas Giolito for the most wins in the majors. First pitch is set for 8:05 p.m. ET. The Astros are -132 sportsbook favorites, with the Rangers fetching +112 in the latest Astros vs. Rangers odds. The over-under for total runs scored is 11. Before making your Astros vs. Rangers picks, see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 16 of the MLB season on a sizzling 18-6 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Its top-rated money-line picks have now returned almost $1,700 on the season for $100 bettors, and anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in Astros vs. Rangers. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows the Astros entered the All-Star break as the hotter team. Houston rolled off seven wins in eight games before the break, while the Rangers have lost six of eight.

The model also has taken into consideration that the Astros’ Yuli Gurriel is on a tear. Since June 28, the day the team’s streak began, Gurriel is hitting .367 with seven home runs and 15 RBIs. He has hit safely in 11 straight games and has homered in five straight. For his efforts, he was named the AL Player of the Week.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean Houston is the best value on the Astros vs. Rangers money line. 

The model also knows that Texas has the pitching edge in this matchup. Lynn has won four straight starts and five straight decisions. He also has a chance to take over the sole lead in the majors in wins. In his last 11 outings, he has allowed three runs or fewer and gone at least six innings 10 times. One of those quality starts came against the Astros on May 10.

The model also has taken into account that Texas is one of the best home teams in the majors. The Rangers (29-17) rank sixth in the majors in winning percentage (.630) at home. Lynn in particular has been formidable at home, with a 7-0 record in nine starts at Globe Life.

So who wins Rangers vs. Astros? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rangers vs. Astros money line to jump on Thursday, all from the advanced model on an 18-6 run.

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