A new generation of power hitters takes center stage on Monday at 8 p.m. ET for the 2019 MLB Home Run Derby from Progressive Field in Cleveland. It’s the youngest field ever, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (age 20) set to become the youngest participant in history. Pete Alonso (24 years old), Ronald Acuna Jr. (21) and Alex Bregman (25) are among the other up-and-coming stars in the 2019 Home Run Derby bracket. Every other participant except for Carlos Santana (33) is 27 or younger. The latest 2019 Home Run Derby odds now favor Josh Bell at +350 (risk $100 to win $350) after Christian Yelich (back) withdrew over the weekend. Guerrero (+450) is next on the odds board, followed by Joc Pederson and Bregman at +500. A $1 million first-place prize is up for grabs for the winner, so with plenty on the line, be sure to see the 2019 Home Run Derby picks and predictions from MLB analytics guru John Bollman.

Nicknamed “The Executive,” Bollman combines MLB front office experience with a deep statistical background. Last season, Bollman, who has a master’s degree in biostatistics, worked in the Toronto Blue Jays‘ analytics department, focusing on high-performance sports science and player development. He is known for his ability to quantify the unquantifiable. 

Bollman’s approach is paying off big-time: He has nailed 57 of his last 92 money-line picks, returning $1,494 to $100 players.

Now, Bollman has broken down the 2019 Home Run Derby like only he can, and locked in a highly confident pick. He’s only sharing it over at SportsLine.

We can tell you he’s not going with Guerrero Jr., one of the top Vegas favorites and the youngest player ever to participate. In fact, Bollman says Guerrero doesn’t even make the finals.

That’s because Guerrero, a righty, faces a disadvantage at Progressive Field. While it’s 325 feet down both lines, the wall in left field is 10 feet higher than the one in right. That could be the difference in multiple home runs clearing the fence or falling just short.

And while Guerrero has enormous raw power, that hasn’t translated to consistent numbers yet in his MLB career. He has only eight home runs all season, and just two of those have come since the start of June. His slugging percentage has also been well under .400 since the beginning of June. There are far better values available in the 2019 Home Run Derby field. 

Instead, Bollman is all over a player who’s poised to exploit the setup at Progressive Field. He’s only sharing who it is, and who wins every 2019 Home Run Derby matchup, at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2019 Home Run Derby? And which slugger is Progressive Field tailor-made for? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see John Bollman’s detailed Home Run Derby picks, all from the analytics guru who’s crushing sportsbooks with his MLB picks.

Josh Bell +350
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +450
Pete Alonso +500
Joc Pederson +500
Carlos Santana +700
Matt Chapman +800
Alex Bregman +800
Ronald Acuna Jr. +1000