Major League Baseball has raised the stakes for the 2019 Home Run Derby, with the winner slated to get $1 million of the $2.5 million purse. It’s an increase of nearly $2 million from last year’s prize pool. The showcase event goes down at 8 p.m. ET on Monday at Progressive Field in Cleveland, one day ahead of the All-Star Game. After the reigning National League MVP Christian Yelich withdrew on Sunday, Vegas now lists Josh Bell as the favorite at +350 (risk $100 to win $350) in the latest 2019 Home Run Derby odds. He’s followed closely by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+450), Pete Alonso (+500) and Joc Pederson (+500). Alex Bregman, Carlos Santana, Matt Chapman and Ronald Acuna Jr. are the long shots, each listed at +700 or higher. Before you make any 2019 Home Run Derby picks or predictions, see what MLB analytics guru John Bollman has to say.

Nicknamed “The Executive,” Bollman combines MLB front office experience with a deep statistical background. Last season, Bollman, who has a master’s degree in biostatistics, worked in the Toronto Blue Jays‘ analytics department, focusing on high-performance sports science and player development. He is known for his ability to quantify the unquantifiable. 

Bollman’s approach is paying off big-time: He has nailed 57 of his last 92 money-line picks, returning $1,494 to $100 players.

Now, Bollman has broken down the 2019 Home Run Derby like only he can, and locked in a highly confident pick. He’s only sharing it over at SportsLine.

We can tell you he’s not going with Alonso despite the fact that the Mets first baseman enters the MLB Home Run Derby 2019 as one of the top Vegas favorites to lift the trophy. Alonso set a National League record for home runs (29) by a rookie before the All-Star break, and he’ll look to continue his torrid run with a strong showing on Monday. 

The 24-year-old has shown tremendous power at the plate throughout the season and his exit velocity remains unmatched. In fact, Alonso has recorded 11 long balls with at least a 110 m.p.h. exit velocity. Despite the staggering numbers and explosive firepower, Alonso will have an extremely tough first round opponent, Indians first baseman Carlos Santana. 

Santana will have a distinct advantage over Alonso because he knows exactly how to dissect this stadium. In fact, Santana has hit 97 homers at Progressive Field, fourth-most in the history of the ballpark. He’s in his ninth year with the Indians.

This is the youngest group of contestants ever, with an average age of 25.43. Given that lack of experience, the 33-year-old Santana could have an edge, especially due to his comfort hitting at Progressive Field.

Instead, Bollman is all over a player who’s poised to exploit the setup at Progressive Field. He’s only sharing who it is, and who wins every 2019 Home Run Derby matchup, at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2019 Home Run Derby? And which slugger benefits most from Progressive Field’s dimensions? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see John Bollman’s detailed Home Run Derby picks, all from the analytics guru who’s destroying sportsbooks with his MLB picks.

Josh Bell +350
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +450
Pete Alonso +500
Joc Pederson +500
Carlos Santana +700
Matt Chapman +800
Alex Bregman +800
Ronald Acuna Jr. +1000