Regional supremacy will be on the line on Sunday when the United States and Mexico meet in the 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup Final at Soldier Field in Chicago. The two countries have historically been the two top teams in the region, and that dominance has been on full display in the Gold Cup. Mexico has won seven titles, the most all-time, while the United States has won six. Only one other country, Canada, has ever claimed the Gold Cup. The Americans enter the 2019 Gold Cup final after a 3-1 win over Jamaica in the semifinals, while Mexico needed 120 minutes to dispatch of Haiti. Kickoff from the Windy City is set for 9 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers list the Mexico as a +125 money line favorite, while the United States is going off as the underdog at +240. A draw in regulation is +215 and the over-under for total goals scored is two in the latest USA vs. Mexico odds, as Vegas is expecting a low-scoring battle. Before you make any USA vs. Mexico picks, be sure to see the 2019 Gold Cup predictions from European soccer expert David Sumpter.
Sumpter is an applied mathematician and author of “Soccermatics,” a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Along with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the three seasons since its inception, Soccerbot is up an incredible 2,000 percent on Premier League picks. That’s right — 2,000 percent.
The model has nailed the United States’ last four Gold Cup matches. It is also crushing its Women’s World Cup picks, returning more than $1,100 to anyone following it. The model correctly predicted the stunning Japan-Argentina draw (+825) — a more than 8-1 long shot — and has been red hot in the knockout stage, correctly calling the exact 2-1 score in the USA’s dramatic victory against England, Sweden’s shocking upset of Germany and the Netherlands’ 2-0 win over Italy.
Now, the model has its sights set on the 2019 Gold Cup final of USA vs. Mexico. We can tell you it’s leaning over, but its much stronger play is on the USA vs. Mexico money line. You can only see it at SportsLine.
The model knows Mexico has a much more impressive resume than Team USA. Mexico is ranked No. 18 in the world (the USA is 30th) and is unbeaten in nine games this year. In addition, Mexico has won the last two competitive matches between the two countries on U.S. soil. In 2016, El Tri beat the Americans, 2-1, in a World Cup qualifier in Columbus. One year earlier, Mexico defeated the United States in the CONCACAF Cup to determine who reached the Confederations Cup.
The model also has taken into account that Mexico has the edge in goal. Guillermo Ochoa, who plays for Standard Liege in the Belgian league, is a veteran of international play, having appeared in 106 matches for El Tri. In the quarterfinal against Costa Rica, the 33-year-old saved a penalty in sudden death to help Mexico advance. And in the semifinal against Haiti, he helped keep Les Grenadiers scoreless for 120 minutes.
But just because Mexico appears to have the edge on paper doesn’t mean it’s the best value on the USA vs. Mexico money line on Sunday.
The model also recognizes that the USMNT appeared to find its rhythm under Greg Berhalter in its weather-interrupted semifinal win over Jamaica. Team USA came out with plenty of energy in that match and got on the board early with a ninth-minute Weston McKennie goal before a lengthy weather delay in the 17th minute. When the Americans came back out, they utilized a pair of Christian Pulisic goals to dispatch a Jamaica side that had played in the two previous Gold Cup finals.
The United States is at its best with Pulisic and McKennie playing as dual No. 10s. That allows Pulisic to roam the field freely to pursue opportunities, and he is finding his stride ahead of his big move to Chelsea. The 20-year-old future of American soccer has three goals and three assists so far in the Gold Cup 2019, so expect him to push the envelope on Sunday as arguably the most dangerous player on the pitch.
So who wins Mexico vs. USA in the 2019 Gold Cup final? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mexico vs. USA money line you need to be all over Sunday, all from an expert who created a model that’s returned a 2,000 percent profit on bookmakers’ closing odds.