The Fourth of July MLB schedule gets underway early in the nation’s capital as the Washington Nationals host the Miami Marlins at 11:05 a.m. ET at Nationals Park. Washington is going for the sweep after winning the first two games in the series. Overall, the Nationals are surging, winning seven of eight and 12 of 15. After a disastrous start to the season, they’ve moved over .500 (44-41) and within six games of the division-leading Braves. The Marlins, meanwhile, are just 32-52 and have dropped six of eight overall. Washington is a -194 (risk $194 to win $100) favorite in the latest Nationals vs. Marlins odds, with the over-under set at 10. Before locking in any Nationals vs. Marlins picks of your own, be sure to see the July 4 MLB predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 15 of the MLB season on a stunning 11-1 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Those picks have now returned almost $1,600 on the season for $100 bettors, and anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now, the model has dialed in on Nationals vs. Marlins. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account that Washington has owned the season series against Miami, entering this matchup with a 9-3 edge. Miami’s offense, especially, has struggled against the Nationals. The Marlins have totaled just three runs in this series and struck out 14 times in Game 2 on Wednesday. Their outlook isn’t much better against veteran Washington starter Anibal Sanchez (3.82 ERA), who has only given up more than two earned runs in one of his last seven starts.

Offensively, the Nationals have several bats who have a great chance to give the Marlins issues. Anthony Rendon (.307/19/58) earned his first ever All-Star selection this year, and he’s bolstered a Washington lineup that also includes Juan Soto (.301/15/54), Trea Turner (.282/6/20) and Howie Kendrick (.323/12/45).  

However, that doesn’t necessarily make Washington the best play on the Nationals vs. Marlins money line on July 4.

Since being given a spot in the rotation on June 11, Hernandez has been pitching well for the Marlins. He’s had at least six strikeouts in each of his four starts while going at least five innings and giving up three runs or fewer. Miami has won the last two times he’s been on the mound and he’s shown plenty of confidence in his secondary offerings, throwing his slider 28.5 percent of the time and his changeup 20.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the Marlins have veteran hitters who have had success against Sanchez. Martin Prado has a .975 OPS lifetime against Sanchez in 36 at-bats, while Starlin Castro has a career .455 OBP against him. Rookie Garrett Cooper has never faced Sanchez before, but he’s having a strong season with a .315/.380/.482 slash line and seven home runs to go along with 28 RBIs.

So who wins Marlins vs. Nationals? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Marlins vs. Nationals money line you should be all over Thursday, all from the advanced model on an 11-1 run on MLB picks, and find out.