The top teams in the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, play the rubber game of their three-game series on the Fourth of July at SunTrust Park. The Phillies won the first game of the series, 2-0, on Tuesday. The Braves answered Wednesday night with a decisive 9-2 win to extend their lead in the division to 5.5 games, but Philadelphia leads the season series 5-3. Atlanta’s Mike Soroka (9-1, 2.13), who was named to the NL All-Star team, goes for his 10th win and will face Philly’s Zach Eflin (7-7, 3.34 ERA). First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. The Braves are -160 (risk $160 to win $100) sportsbook favorites, with the Phillies fetching +144 (risk $100 to win $144) in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds. Before making your Braves vs. Phillies picks, be sure to see the Fourth of July MLB predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 15 of the MLB season on a stunning 11-1 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Its top-rated money-line picks have now returned almost $1,600 on the season for $100 bettors, and anybody who has been following it is way up. 

Now, the model has zeroed in Braves vs. Phillies. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can see that pick only at SportsLine. 

The model knows that Soroka has been one of the best pitchers in the NL this season. The 21-year-old righty is tied for second in the league in wins (nine). And if he had enough innings to qualify, he’d rank second in ERA (2.13) and fourth in WHIP (0.98). 

The model also has taken into account that the Braves’ lineup has been hot. Since June 1, Atlanta leads the majors in OPS (.861), slugging percentage (.514), runs (196) and home runs (59). In that same time period, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 5.54 ERA, fourth worst in the majors.

But just because Atlanta appears to have a big advantage on paper doesn’t guarantee it’s the best value on the Braves vs. Phillies money line.

Eflin has arguably been Philadelphia’s best starter this season. His 3.34 ERA trails only closer Hector Neris‘ 3.09 on the team. In addition, Eflin has a track record of success against Atlanta. He is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three career starts against the Braves.

The model also has considered that third baseman Maikel Franco is streaking. Since June 24, the 26-year-old is hitting .364 and slugging .667 with a 1.083 OPS. He leads the team in all three categories over that time.

So who wins Phillies vs. Braves on July 4? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Phillies vs. Braves money line to jump on Thursday, all from the advanced model on a blistering 11-1 run on MLB picks.