The Atlanta Braves will try to increase their lead in the NL East on the Fourth of July when they close out a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies at SunTrust Park. The Braves beat the Phillies, 9-2, on Wednesday night to extend their lead in the division to 5.5 games over Philadelphia. The Washington Nationals are another half-game back. Atlanta’s largest division lead this season has been 6.5 games, which the team can match on Thursday. Atlanta’s Mike Soroka (9-1, 2.13), who was named to the NL All-Star team, goes for his 10th win. He’s set to face Philly’s Zach Eflin (7-7, 3.34 ERA), and first pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. The Braves are now -171 sportsbook favorites after opening at -168, with the Phillies fetching +144 in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds. Before making your Braves vs. Phillies picks, listen to what the SportsLine projection model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 15 of the MLB season on a stunning 11-1 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Its top-rated money-line picks have now returned almost $1,600 on the season for $100 bettors, and anybody who has been following it is way up. 

Now, the model has zeroed in Braves vs. Phillies. We can tell you it is leaning under 10.5 runs, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can see that pick only at SportsLine. 

The model has factored in that few pitchers in the NL have been better this season than Soroka. In his first full season, the 21-year-old has a 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, which would rank second and fourth, respectively, if he had enough innings to qualify. In addition, he has won his last nine decisions and the Braves are 11-3 when he starts. 

The model also knows that Philadelphia’s pitching staff has struggled for almost a month. Since June 14, the Phillies’ bullpen has blown leads four times and the pitching staff as a whole has allowed 5.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, since June 1, Atlanta’s lineup leads the majors in OPS (.861), slugging percentage (.514), runs (196) and home runs (59).

But just because Atlanta appears to have a big advantage on paper doesn’t guarantee it’s the best value on the Braves vs. Phillies money line.

Eflin has arguably been Philadelphia’s best starter this season. His 3.34 ERA trails only closer Hector Neris‘ 3.09 on the team. In addition, Eflin has a track record of success against Atlanta. He is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three career starts against the Braves.

The model also has considered that third baseman Maikel Franco is streaking. Since June 24, the 26-year-old is hitting .364 and slugging .667 with a 1.083 OPS. He leads the team in all three categories over that time.

So who wins Phillies vs. Braves on July 4? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Phillies vs. Braves money line to jump on Thursday, all from the advanced model on a blistering 11-1 run on MLB picks.