Just over halfway through the season, the Washington Nationals are behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East, but their sensational starting pitching has them in position to make a charge. They’ve won seven of their last 10 games and went 18-8 in the month of June. On Thursday, the Nationals (43-41) will help get the Fourth of July MLB schedule underway as they host the Miami Marlins (32-51) in a divisional matchup. Washington will send Anibal Sanchez (4-6, 3.82 ERA) to the mound, while the Marlins will go with Elieser Hernandez (1-2, 4.07 ERA). It’s an 11:05 a.m. ET start and Washington is the -194 favorite (risk $194 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Nationals vs. Marlins odds. The over-under for runs scored is 10. Before you make your Nationals vs. Marlins picks, be sure to see the Fourth of July MLB predictions from the proven projection model at SportsLine.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered Week 15 of the MLB season on a stunning 11-1 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Those picks have now returned almost $1,600 on the season for $100 bettors, and anybody who has been following it is way up.
Now, the model has dialed in on Nationals vs. Marlins. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that the Nationals will be looking for another quality outing from Sanchez. The 35-year-old posted an impressive 2.83 ERA last season with the Braves to earn a two-year, $19 million deal with Washington. He enters this start with a 3.82 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 77.2 innings this season after an excellent outing against the Tigers in his last trip to the mound. Sanchez gave up just one run on six hits and struck out eight on his way to the win.
Washington’s bats have also been heating up lately, as the Nationals posted a .793 team OPS in June, a 75-point improvement over May. Anthony Rendon continues to tear the cover off the baseball. He hit nine home runs last month and has a 1.014 OPS for the season.
However, that doesn’t necessarily make Washington the best play on the Nationals vs. Marlins money line.
Since being given a spot in the rotation on June 11, Hernandez has been pitching well for the Marlins. He’s had at least six strikeouts in each of his four starts while going at least five innings and giving up three runs or fewer. Miami has won the last two times he’s been on the mound and he’s shown plenty of confidence in his secondary offerings, throwing his slider 28.5 percent of the time and his changeup 20.6 percent.
Meanwhile, the Marlins have veteran hitters who have had success against Sanchez. Martin Prado has a .975 OPS lifetime against Sanchez in 36 at-bats, while Starlin Castro has a career .455 OBP against him. Rookie Garrett Cooper has never faced Sanchez before, but he’s having a strong season with a .315/.380/.482 slash line and seven home runs to go along with 28 RBIs.
So who wins Marlins vs. Nationals? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Marlins vs. Nationals money line you should be all over Thursday, all from the advanced model on an 11-1 run on MLB picks, and find out.