The third major championship of the revamped PGA schedule begins on Thursday, and the 2019 U.S. Open is designed to be the toughest test of the season. The USGA selected Pebble Beach Golf Links to host the prestigious tournament for the sixth time this week and they’ve spent months growing out the rough and drying up the greens to ensure that one of the shortest major championship venues is still capable of frustrating the 156-player 2019 U.S. Open field. With the Pebble Beach forecast calling for double-digit wind speeds throughout the week, the iconic venue will undoubtedly be one of the stars of the show when the first 2019 U.S. Open tee times begin at 9:45 a.m. ET on Thursday. Superstars like Dustin Johnson (7-1), Brooks Koepka (8-1), Tiger Woods (10-1) and Rory McIlroy (10-1) are among the favorites in the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds. Before you make any golf predictions for Pebble Beach, be sure to consult the 2019 U.S. Open picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed five majors entering the weekend, including Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship. It also called Tiger Woods’ deep run in last year’s PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot.

The model has been spot-on in the 2018-19 season as well. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau’s (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the field for the U.S. Open 2019 is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Francesco Molinari, the 2018 Open Championship winner and No. 6 ranked golfer in the world, barely cracks the top 30 at the U.S. Open 2019.

Molinari has one win on the PGA Tour this season as well as three top-10 performances, including a fifth place at the 2019 Masters. However, he comes to Pebble Beach struggling in his recent tournaments. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and then finished 48th at the PGA Championship and 53rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

And while he has at least one top-five performance in the other three majors in his career, he’s never finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open. He ranks outside the top 100 in driving distance (291.1 yards) and is close to 200th on tour in greens-in-regulation percentage (61.76) this season. McClure’s model says Molinari isn’t worth a look, even at 35-1. 

Another surprise: Adam Scott, a 30-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has all the tools needed to climb the 2019 U.S. Open leaderboard in a hurry.

The Australian may not be the household name like Koepka, Johnson, Woods, and McIlroy, but he already has a major victory under his belt. Scott took down the 2013 Masters, beating Angel Cabrera in a playoff and posting a score of 9-under. He beat Woods by four in that tournament, held at another one of the PGA’s iconic courses, Augusta National.

Scott has an Official World Golf Ranking and FedEx Cup point total in the top 20 and is red-hot entering the U.S. Open 2019. He was the runner-up to Patrick Cantlay in the Memorial less than two weeks ago and finished eighth at the PGA Championship, the year’s second golf major. At the Masters, Scott took 18th after firing a 69 and 68 in his first two rounds. Scott brings the eighth-best scoring average to Pebble Beach on Thursday.

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 U.S. Open odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 U.S. Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of five golf majors.

Dustin Johnson 7-1  
Brooks Koepka 8-1
Tiger Woods 10-1
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Jordan Spieth 14-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Justin Rose 20-1
Rickie Fowler 20-1
Justin Thomas 25-1
Jon Rahm 25-1
Jason Day 25-1
Xander Schauffele 25-1
Adam Scott 30-1
Tommy Fleetwood 30-1
Phil Mickelson 30-1
Francesco Molinari 35-1
Tony Finau 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 50-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Webb Simpson 50-1
Brandt Snedeker 50-1
Henrik Stenson 60-1
Marc Leishman 60-1
Martin Kaymer 60-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Patrick Reed 80-1
Shane Lowry 80-1
Sergio Garcia 100-1
Louis Oosthuizen 100-1
Matt Wallace 100-1
Kevin Kisner 100-1
Graeme McDowell 100-1