The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the top teams in the NFL two seasons ago and surged to a 10-6 record, a division title and an appearance in the AFC Championship Game on the strength of an elite defense and improved play from quarterback Blake Bortles. Oddsmakers expected another push for the postseason last year and posted Jacksonville’s win total at nine. The result: The defense didn’t play at the same level and Bortles regressed, sinking Jacksonville to last in the division with a dismal 5-11 mark. If you took the under on the Jags’ NFL win total, you cleared it with plenty of room to spare. With training camp just over a month away this season, finding the teams poised for a huge step back or forward is the key to nailing your picks on 2019 NFL win totals. And before you place your 2019 NFL picks on win totals, be sure to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model nailed its top-rated NFL picks last year, finishing the season on a strong 16-6 run. For the season, it went 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on for the third straight year. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it’s locked in on Vegas’ projected 2019 NFL win totals. We can tell you the model says the Atlanta Falcons go well under their posted total of 8.5 wins.

The trends are pointing in the wrong direction for the Falcons, a team whose win total has fallen the past three years. They had 11 victories in 2016, 10 in 2017 and seven last season. They certainly have plenty of weapons on offense in Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Devonta Freeman, with a proven quarterback in Matt Ryan to spread the ball around.

But big contracts for Jones and Ryan have left other areas lacking. The Falcons were gutted defensively in 2018 and didn’t do much to address that side of the ball in the offseason. They’re hoping key players returning on defense will provide a spark, but the model sees Atlanta as a .500 team at best in 2019, projecting a win total of 7.6.

The model has also unearthed major discrepancies for four other NFL clubs, and generated each team’s exact win total this season, including the New York Giants. They finished with five wins last season amid a dismal season and sent Odell Beckham to the Browns. Oddsmakers have set their season win total at seven, and the projection model has a strong opinion on the 2019 fortunes for a New York team that won 11 games three years ago.

So which teams sail past their projected win totals? And how many wins will every single NFL team have this season? Visit SportsLine now to get the five best season win total picks, plus see every team’s projected 2019 record, all from an advanced computer model that keeps crushing its picks, and find out.