The Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds close out a two-game interleague series on Wednesday afternoon at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Indians won the first game between the intrastate rivals on Tuesday night, 2-1 in 10 innings, after getting a bases-loaded single from rookie Oscar Mercado. The win was Cleveland’s fifth in seven games and its fifth straight against Cincinnati, a streak that dates back to July 2018. Meanwhile, the loss was Cincinnati’s fourth in five games. On Wednesday, Indians rookie Zach Plesac (1-1, 1.86 ERA) makes his fourth career start, and he’ll face the Reds’ Anthony DeSclafani (2-3, 4.70). First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. The Indians are -125 sportsbook favorites (risk $125 to win $100), with the over-under for total runs set at 9.5 in the latest Indians vs. Reds odds. Before making your Indians vs. Reds picks, see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has returned almost $800 in profit on its top-rated MLB picks in 2019. It also entered Week 12 of the MLB season on a strong 33-18 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Anybody who has been following it is way up.
Now, the model has zeroed in Indians vs. Reds. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that the Indians have owned the Reds recently. In addition to winning the last five meetings between these two teams, Cleveland has won 16 of the last 21.
The model also has factored in that Carlos Santana is having an All-Star-caliber season. In his last 12 games, the 33-year-old first baseman is hitting .333 and slugging .711 with an OPS of 1.134. He has hit safely in seven straight games. Santana is also 3-for-6 with three doubles in his career against the Reds’ DeSclafani, who is winless in his last five starts.
But just because Cleveland has had success against Cincinnati doesn’t mean it’s the best value on the Indians vs. Reds money line on Wednesday afternoon.
Cincinnati still owns one of the best pitching staffs in the majors. The Reds have an ERA of 3.60, which ranks fourth in the majors behind only the Rays, Dodgers and Astros — all playoff teams if the season ended today. In addition, DeSclafani has been solid at Progressive Field. In two previous starts in Cleveland, he is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA over 14.0 career innings.
The model also has considered that Eugenio Suarez and Derek Dietrich are capable of getting hot at any time. In May, Suarez hit .321 with seven home runs, 24 RBIs and a .985 OPS. In the same month, Dietrich hit .304 with 12 home runs, 22 RBIs and a 1.241 OPS.
So who wins Reds vs. Indians? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Reds vs. Indians money line to jump on Wednesday, all from the advanced model that simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and find out.