The 119th U.S. Open gets underway on Thursday as golf’s top players descend on Pebble Beach Golf Links in California. The 2019 U.S. Open will be a prime test for the world’s top golfers, as Pebble Beach contains some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. And while the course isn’t long by major championship standards, playing just over 7,000 yards, the rough coupled with its small, lighting-fast putting surface will be a challenge for every player in the 2019 U.S. Open field. Pebble Beach last hosted the U.S. Open in 2010, with Graeme McDowell winning his first and only major championship with a score of even par. McDowell will play alongside Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson at 11:13 a.m. ET on Thursday, almost two hours after the first 2019 U.S. Open tee times. Johnson is going off as the 8-1 co-favorite alongside back-to-back champion Brooks Koepka in the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds, while Mickelson can complete a career Grand Slam with a victory at Pebble Beach this week. Before locking in any 2019 U.S. Open picks of your own, be sure to see the PGA predictions from the proven projection model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed five majors entering the weekend, including Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship. It also called Tiger Woods’ deep run in last year’s PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot.

The model has been spot-on in the 2018-19 season as well. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau’s (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the field for the U.S. Open 2019 is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Francesco Molinari, the 2018 Open Championship winner and No. 6 ranked golfer in the world, barely cracks the top 30 at the U.S. Open 2019.

Molinari has one win on the PGA Tour this season as well as three top-10 performances, including a fifth place at the 2019 Masters. However, he comes to Pebble Beach struggling in his recent tournaments. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and then finished 48th at the PGA Championship and 53rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

And while he has at least one top-five performance in the other three majors in his career, he’s never finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open. He ranks outside the top 100 in driving distance (291.1 yards) and is close to 200th on tour in greens-in-regulation percentage (61.76) this season. McClure’s model says Molinari isn’t worth a look, even at 35-1. 

Another surprise: Xander Schauffele, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has all the tools needed to climb the 2019 U.S. Open leaderboard in a hurry.

Schauffele sports an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 10, and the 25-year-old already has an impressive track record in major championships. He finished tied for second at the 2019 Masters, tied for second at last year’s Open Championship and made the top 10 in the last two editions of the U.S. Open.

Schauffele is a four-time winner on the PGA Tour and has finished on top of the leaderboard twice this season already, which has him sitting fourth in the FedEx Cup standings. Schauffele has derived that success from a well-rounded game. He ranks in the top 15 on the PGA Tour in scoring average (69.917) and birdie average (4.27). He can let it fly off the tee, with an average driving distance of 303.9 yards, good for 28th on tour. He’s also fifth on the PGA money list at almost $4.8 million.

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 U.S. Open odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 U.S. Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of five golf majors.

Brooks Koepka 8-1
Dustin Johnson 8-1
Tiger Woods 10-1
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Jordan Spieth 14-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Justin Rose 20-1
Rickie Fowler 20-1
Justin Thomas 25-1
Jon Rahm 25-1
Jason Day 25-1
Xander Schauffele 25-1
Adam Scott 30-1
Tommy Fleetwood 30-1
Phil Mickelson 30-1
Francesco Molinari 35-1
Tony Finau 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 50-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Webb Simpson 50-1
Brandt Snedeker 50-1
Henrik Stenson 60-1
Marc Leishman 60-1
Martin Kaymer 60-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Patrick Reed 80-1
Shane Lowry 80-1
Sergio Garcia 100-1
Louis Oosthuizen 100-1
Matt Wallace 100-1
Kevin Kisner 100-1
Graeme McDowell 100-1

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