The U.S. Open brings to us here at Today’s Top Picks a couple of great opportunities to cash in on golf’s national championship.
While we would never advise loading up on favorites like Brooks Koepka, Tiger Woods or Rory McIlroy to win the tournament, there are a few head-to-head matchups that present value with all three of those headliners. The price on favorites in golf is not worth the randomness of a 72-hole tournament, but a head-to-head showdown (for the entire tournament, not just one round) is a fair test of where these stars stack up against their peers.
With that in mind, here are three U.S. Open plays to make sure you jump on before action starts on Thursday morning at Pebble Beach.
1. Jordan Spieth (+180) vs. Rory McIlroy
This starts with the premise of fading Rory McIlroy. McIlroy’s value in the eyes of the oddsmakers is inflated following a white-hot start to the 2019 year. His ten top-10s and pair of victories, at both the Players and Canadian Open, give him an argument as the best golfer on the planet, and that’s an argument I’d entertain.
But that’s not an argument for why he’s going to perform well at the U.S. Open. McIlroy has missed three straight cuts at the U.S. Open and has just one top-20 finish since he won in record-setting fashion at Congressional in 2011. He’s maybe the best golfer around right now, but the USGA has had his number recently and there’s value in betting that they will again this week.
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the U.S. Open 10,000 times and has come up with several value prop bets, including some that pay out better than 10-to-1. Find out the model’s picks only at SportsLine.
2. Tiger Woods (+150) vs. Rory McIlroy
Take everything we just said about McIlroy, now factor in the many advantages of being Tiger Woods at Pebble Beach. Woods has competed in two U.S. Opens at Pebble Beach, and out of the 310-ish competitors he’s faced in those two U.S. Opens he’s finished beaten all but three golfers. Woods had his lowest Saturday-Sunday scoring weekend as an amateur at Pebble Beach, he cleared the field by 15 strokes in a win here in 2000 and should be considered the golfer with the most value for course history.
And you’re going to give me a plus-value Woods against Rory? Lock it up.
SportsLine analyst Zack Cimini is on an MLB heater, hitting 20 of his last 28 picks. He’s locked in his best bets for Tuesday’s slate, so head over to SportsLine to see who Cimini believes is the best value on the board.
3. Brooks Koepka (+115) vs. Dustin Johnson
We mentioned it before the PGA Championship and it cashed so we’ll mention it again: Brooks Koepka is the Alabama football or Duke basketball of golf. If you have an opportunity where said juggernaut is an underdog, it’s an auto-play. The two-time champ arrived at Pebble Beach in good spirits ready for a fight, and that fighter’s mentality will keep him engaged enough to think he’s going to be on the first page of the leaderboard no matter how the weekend breaks. DJ has a much higher chance of ejecting, but truly I believe this will be a sweat through Sunday night.
SportsLine WNBA expert Jacob Gibbs has developed a profitable model for the basketball league, and that model has identified three best bets from Tuesday’s action. Find those picks over at SportsLine.