It’s officially 2019 U.S. Open week and the world’s best golfers have converged on Pebble Beach, Calif. to take on the historic par-71 Pebble Beach Golf Links. It’s the sixth time the U.S. Open has been held at this venue known for its breathtaking scenery, and the 2019 U.S. Open field will be looking to navigate a challenging course in an effort to win golf’s third major of the year. The 2019 U.S. Open odds have continued to move as the first tee times approach on Thursday, with Dustin Johnson and back-to-back champion Brooks Koepka listed as the 8-1 co-favorites. They’re followed by three-time champion Tiger Woods (10-1), the only player to finish under par in the last two times the U.S. Open has been held at Pebble Beach. Whether you’re leaning towards picking a proven champion or searching for a player who could record a career-defining win this week, you should see the 2019 U.S. Open picks and PGA Tour predictions from the proven golf projection model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed five majors entering the weekend, including Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship. It also called Tiger Woods’ deep run in last year’s PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. 

The model has been spot-on in the 2018-19 season as well. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau’s (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now with the 2019 U.S. Open field set, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a three-time champion, reigning Masters champ, and one of the top Vegas favorites, barely cracks the top 10.

With a revised PGA schedule this season, Woods elected not to play between the Masters and PGA Championship, and the layoff looked like it might have cost him. After winning at Augusta, Woods failed to make the cut at Bethpage Black despite entering the week as the betting favorite because he hit just 46 percent of fairways and gave back 0.713 strokes on the greens. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship much to the dismay of backers everywhere.

However, last week he was able to shake it off and get back on track with a top-10 finish at the Memorial. That being said, Woods hasn’t finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open since 2010 and has missed the cut the last two times he’s played this event. Given his inconsistency off the tee and the difficulty he’s had playing out of thick rough because of chronic back issues, there are far better values in a loaded 2019 U.S. Open field than the 10-1 premium you’ll need to pay.

Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Despite having to withdraw from the PGA Championship with a wrist injury, Thomas has put together an impressive campaign this season. In 13 starts, he has finished in the top 25 on nine occasions and has five top-10 finishes.

Thomas had a career-defining win in the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, firing three rounds of 69 or better to best Patrick Reed and Louis Oosthuizen by two strokes. It’s the only major championship for the nine-time PGA Tour winner, but nobody questions the fact that he has elite talent. In fact, Thomas enters the 2019 U.S. Open ranked No. 1 on the PGA Tour in birdie average (4.72), seventh in scoring average (69.675) and third in holes per eagle (75.3), which makes him a clear threat this week at Pebble Beach. Look for him to rise up the 2019 U.S. Open leaderboard in a hurry starting on Thursday.

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 U.S. Open odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title, including a monster long shot. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 U.S. Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of five golf majors.

Brooks Koepka 8-1
Dustin Johnson 8-1
Tiger Woods 10-1
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Jordan Spieth 14-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Justin Rose 20-1
Justin Thomas 25-1
Rickie Fowler 25-1
Adam Scott 25-1
Jon Rahm 25-1
Jason Day 25-1
Xander Schauffele 25-1
Tommy Fleetwood 30-1
Phil Mickelson 30-1
Francesco Molinari 35-1
Tony Finau 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 40-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Webb Simpson 50-1
Brandt Snedeker 50-1