Maybe it’s because Brooks Koepka only broke par one time at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. Or maybe it’s because Dustin Johnson has won twice at Pebble Beach and probably should have won the 2010 U.S. Open there. Or maybe Las Vegas just thinks Koepka’s hot streak has to come to an end at some point.

Whatever the case, the four-time major champion is no longer the solo favorite to win the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. He’s been caught (but not surpassed) by workout bro pal D.J. as both begin the week with 8-1 odds to take the third major of the season. This is fair given the fact that one golfer — Tiger Woods — has beaten them in the first two majors of the year.

And speaking of Woods, he checks in alongside Rory McIlroy at 10-1 just behind the bash brothers. That’s not a crazy number if you’re going off his Masters win. It is a crazy number if you’re going off his missed cut at the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black. McIlroy comes in off a seven-stroke win at the RBC Canadian Open in which he dusted several other U.S. Open contenders with a final round 61 at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. He doesn’t have a top 10 at a U.S. Open since 2015 and has missed three straight cuts.

Next in line is Jordan Spieth at 14-1. Wait … Jordan Spieth?! You mean the guy who hasn’t won a tournament anywhere since the 2017 Open Championship, nearly 24 months ago? Spieth does come in having finished in the top 10 in three straight PGA Tour events and has won at Pebble Beach before, but I’m still dubious and will be until he grabs another win.

After Spieth is Patrick Cantlay at 16-1, fresh off his win at the Memorial Tournament. Your 20-1 odds are rounded out by Justin Rose, who will play the first two rounds with Woods and Spieth. The best value beyond that comes with Jason Day and Xander Schauffele at 25-1, Tommy Fleetwood at 30-1 (!), Francesco Molinari at 35-1 and Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Kuchar at 40-1.

Here’s a look at the full odds for everyone at 40-1 or better.

  • Dustin Johnson: 8-1
  • Brooks Koepka: 8-1
  • Tiger Woods: 10-1
  • Rory McIlroy: 10-1
  • Jordan Spieth: 14-1
  • Patrick Cantlay: 16-1
  • Justin Rose: 20-1
  • Justin Thomas: 25-1
  • Rickie Fowler: 25-1
  • Jon Rahm: 25-1
  • Jason Day: 25-1
  • Adam Scott: 25-1
  • Xander Schauffele: 25-1
  • Tommy Fleetwood: 30-1
  • Phil Mickelson: 30-1
  • Francesco Molinari: 35-1
  • Tony Finau: 35-1
  • Bryson DeChambeau: 40-1
  • Hideki Matsuyama: 40-1
  • Matt Kuchar: 40-1

So who will win the U.S. Open, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of five golf majors, including the PGA Championship.