For players such as Tiger Woods (10-1), Dustin Johnson (7-1), Jordan Spieth (16-1), Rory McIlroy (16-1) and defending two-time champion Brooks Koepka (13-2), the 2019 U.S. Open is about adding another U.S. Open trophy to their collection. But for players like Rickie Fowler (20-1) or Jon Rahm (25-1), this event is about finding the career-defining major victory that has eluded them. Fowler enters the PGA Championship 2019 as one of eight golfers going off at 20-1 or lower in the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds. He’s finished inside the top 12 in six of his last 10 major tournaments, but has yet to break through with a major title. Whether you’re looking over the list of former U.S. Open champions, or thinking you’ll back a potential first-time winner, first be sure to see the 2019 U.S. Open picks and PGA predictions from the proven projection model at SportsLine. 

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed five majors entering the weekend, including Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship. It also called Tiger Woods’ deep run in last year’s PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. 

The model has been spot-on in the 2018-19 season as well. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau’s (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now with the 2019 U.S. Open field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a three-time champion, reigning Masters champ, and one of the top Vegas favorites, barely cracks the top 10.

Woods put on one of the most dominant performances at a major when he won by an astonishing 15 strokes at the 2000 U.S. Open, which was also played at Pebble Beach. The 15-time major champion will enter the 2019 U.S. Open full of confidence after posting three rounds under-par at the Memorial and securing a top-10 finish. Woods’ brilliant iron play was on full display at the Memorial. In fact, Woods picked up more than five shots on the field approaching the green at Muirfield Village. That dominant performance now has Woods ranked second on tour in greens in regulation percentage (72.86).

Despite Woods’ stellar iron play, his inability to find the fairway off the tee has hindered his game. In the second round of the PGA Championship, Woods hit just three of 14 fairways, which resulted in a missed cut after shooting a 3-over 73. Woods currently ranks 62nd on tour in driving accuracy percentage (64.84), and he’ll certainly find himself in trouble if he’s unable to control his driver with Pebble Beach’s extremely narrow fairways. SportsLine’s model doesn’t believe Woods will earn his 16th career major championship and sees far better values in this loaded U.S. Open 2019 field.

Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Thomas is no stranger to success at major tournaments. In fact, he’s finished inside the top 12 in four major starts since 2017, which includes a victory at the 2017 PGA Championship. His odds going into the 2019 U.S. Open are a bit longer after missing over a month due to a wrist injury, but don’t let his short hiatus deter you at Pebble Beach.

His 2018-19 PGA Tour campaign has included five top-10 finishes, which can be directly attributed to his consistent play across multiple categories. He enters June hitting well over 70 percent of greens in regulations (73.06), which leaves him with more makable birdie opportunities. That’s proven fruitful throughout the season as he ranks first on tour in birdie average (4.90) and fourth in scoring average (69.512), giving him the tools he needs to climb the 2019 U.S. Open leaderboard in a hurry. 

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 U.S. Open odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 U.S. Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of five golf majors.

Brooks Koepka 13-2
Dustin Johnson 7-1
Tiger Woods 10-1
Rory McIlroy 16-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Justin Rose 20-1
Rickie Fowler 20-1
Justin Thomas 25-1
Jon Rahm 25-1
Jason Day 25-1
Xander Schauffele 25-1
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1
Francesco Molinari 30-1
Phil Mickelson 30-1
Tony Finau 30-1
Hideki Matsuyama 30-1
Adam Scott 30-1
Bryson DeChambeau 40-1
Matt Kuchar 50-1
Paul Casey 50-1