The Los Angeles Lakers will look to get back on track after a loss to Toronto as they travel to Detroit to take on Blake Griffin and the Pistons on Friday. However, they’ll have to do so without star LeBron James, who will sit out the second half of a back-to-back as the Lakers manage his workload. L.A. will also be without Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, who have been shut down for the year. Meanwhile, Detroit may be missing their starting point guard, Reggie Jackson, who turned his ankle in their last game. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from Little Caesars Arena. Sportsbooks list the Pistons as 12-point home favorites, up from an open of -8, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216 in the latest Lakers vs. Pistons odds. Before you make any Lakers vs. Pistons picks with so much uncertainty, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 21 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 240-187 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 22 on a strong 54-42 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Lakers vs. Pistons. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that extremely strong selection at SportsLine.

The model is well aware that the Pistons rank ahead of the Lakers in every meaningful metric and have something to play for at this point in the season. They also have a day of rest coming into this one, while Los Angeles is playing its third game in four days. The Lakers are just 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games, which has dropped them to a dead last in cover rate (40.3 percent) in the NBA.

The Pistons, on the other hand, have been one of the NBA’s top teams over the past month. Their excellent play has been spearheaded by big man Andre Drummond. The past three games have been blowouts one way or the other, but in Drummond’s last five games that he hasn’t seen his minutes limited by blowouts, he’s averaged 20 points and 18 rebounds. With Tyson Chandler out, Los Angeles has no answer for Detroit’s physical frontcourt.

Just because Detroit is the better team on paper doesn’t mean it will cover the Lakers vs. Pistons spread on Friday, however. 

The model also knows that the Pistons haven’t been asked to cover a spread between 10.5 and 13.5 this season, which means Detroit is in uncharted waters. They’re also a disappointing 9-12 against the number versus teams like the Lakers that win between 45 and 55 percent of their games.

The Lakers covered the only other meeting between these teams this season, a 113-100 win in January, a game they also didn’t have James for. Kyle Kuzma stepped up big with 41 points, including five three-pointers.

So who wins Pistons vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pistons vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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