Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder play host to D’Angelo Russell and the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday, with tipoff from Chesapeake Energy Arena set for 7 p.m. ET. The Nets own the NBA‘s third-longest winning streak and a half-game lead over the Detroit Pistons as the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Thunder, on the other hand, were passed by the Rockets for the No. 3 seed and a loss Wednesday would drop OKC to the No. 5 seed in the West. Oklahoma City is listed as a seven-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 231.5 in the latest Thunder vs. Nets odds. Before you make any Thunder vs. Nets picks of your own, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 21 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 240-187 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 22 on a strong 54-42 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now it has locked in on Thunder vs. Nets. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of what a mismatch this is on paper. The Thunder boast a top-five defense, while also ranking higher than Brooklyn in offensive efficiency, rebounding rate, assist-to-turnover ratio and point differential. Every meaningful stat points toward OKC being the far superior team, and it has already beaten Brooklyn once this season.
In that game, Westbrook posted a monster triple-double, recording 21 points, 17 assists and 15 rebounds. Not to be outdone, Paul George turned in 47 points and 15 rebounds. It is clear that Brooklyn doesn’t have an answer for these two defensively.
But just because Oklahoma City is the better team on paper doesn’t mean it will cover the Thunder vs. Nets spread.
The model is also well aware that Brooklyn has been continually undervalued by Vegas this year, especially on the road. They have a 59.4 percent cover rate against the spread away from home, and they’ve been even better against the number (66.7 percent) when listed as a 5.5 to 8.5-point underdog. They’ve also won four straight games, which includes a 28-point win over the Pistons and 39-point victory over the Mavericks.
And while OKC has much better numbers on the season, that doesn’t account for the fact that Brooklyn has had some of the worst injury luck in the league. The Nets have only played a handful of their games with Russell, Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie all healthy. Dinwiddie’s return is what has really seemed to galvanize this team, and he has averaged 22 points and five assists on 52 percent shooting over the four-game win streak.
So who wins Nets vs. Thunder? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nets vs. Thunder spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.