James Harden and the Houston Rockets host Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets on Monday, and tip-off from the Toyota Center is set for 8 p.m. ET. While the Hornets had the weekend off, this will be the back end of a back-to-back for Houston. The Hornets really need to start piecing together some wins, as their recent skid has them out of the NBA playoff picture for the time being. They enter tonight’s action one game behind the Heat for the No. 8 seed in the East, while the Rockets sit comfortably as the No. 3 seed in the West after an NBA-best eight-game winning streak.

Houston is listed as a 9.5-point home favorite for this game, while the over-under for total points is 224.5 in the latest Rockets vs. Hornets odds. Before you make any Rockets vs. Hornets picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 21 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 234-178 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 21 on a strong 52-37 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Rockets vs. Hornets. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model is well aware of what a huge advantage home court is in this matchup, as the Hornets have been considerably worse when playing on the road. Charlotte’s 9-22 record on the road this year is easily the worst among playoff hopefuls, while its 41.9 percent cover rate against-the-spread on the road is the seventh worst in the NBA.

Houston has a strong cover rate (56.2 percent) when playing at home, and the Rockets have won four straight home games entering tonight’s action. A big reason for Houston’s second-half surge is the return of Clint Capela. The Rockets are 8-1 since Capela’s return, and the big man has averaged 14 points and 14 rebounds since returning to the lineup, and he should feast against Charlotte’s thin frontcourt tonight.

Just because Houston benefits from home court advantage, doesn’t mean it will cover the Rockets vs. Hornets spread. 

The model is also well aware that Houston has been horrendous against-the-spread when attempting to cover near double-digit spreads. In games they have been favored by between 6.5 and 9.5 points, Houston is just 2-10 against-the-spread. That, plus the fact that Houston just played a hard-fought game against the Mavericks, offers some reason for optimism if backing Charlotte.

The other reason is the continued excellent play of Walker. Charlotte’s All-Star starting guard has averaged 25 points and seven assists since the All-Star Break, including a 35-point performance against Houston just two weeks ago. Charlotte lost that game by just five points, and another big game from Walker could help them cover a much larger spread tonight.

So who wins Hornets vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Hornets vs. Rockets spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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