The Brooklyn Nets travel to Cleveland to take on Collin Sexton and the Cavaliers tonight in an Eastern Conference battle. Neither of these teams have a winning record, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t betting lines to be exploited. With the return of Kevin Love, the Cavs have been playing better as of late, but they’ll be without their big man for this one. How will his absence affect the outcome of tonight’s game? Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from the Quicken Loans Arena. Sportsbooks list the Nets as eight point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 224 in the latest Nets vs. Cavaliers odds. Before you make any Nets vs. Cavaliers picks, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 18 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 212-158 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 18 on a blistering 41-26 run. Anybody following it is way up.
Now it has locked in on Nets vs. Cavaliers. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also has locked in a confident against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of what a mismatch this is on paper. While the Cavaliers rank dead last in defensive efficiency and in the bottom-third in offensive rating, rebound rate, and scoring differential, Brooklyn has been sneakily better than their record would show, according to the metrics. The Nets rank 12th in rebounding rate and are in the top-half of the NBA in offensive efficiency and point differential. They also rank fifth in three pointers made and eighth in three point percentage, which bodes well for tonight’s matchup against the Cavs, who have allowed the second-highest opponent three point percentage this season.
Not only does the statistical argument lean toward the Nets, but Brooklyn has owned this matchup recently. The Nets are 6-2 against-the-spread in their past eight meetings with the Cavs, which is especially impressive when you consider that six of those eight games came against the LeBron James-led Cavs.
But just because the Nets have dominated this series as of late doesn’t mean they’ll cover the Nets vs. Cavaliers spread.
The model is also well aware that for all of Cleveland’s struggles, the Cavs have actually been better than the Nets recently. Brooklyn has just one win in its last six games, a span that includes embarrassing losses to the Bulls and Magic. And while Sexton’s defense has been lacking this season, his offense has picked up as of late. The rookie is averaging 22.5 points over his last four games and has hit multiple three pointers in each of those contests.
Cleveland also has received excellent contributions from Larry Nance Jr., who has been a beast on the glass recently. Nance has recorded six-straight double-doubles dating back to Jan. 29, a span in which he has averaged 12.7 points and 13.3 rebounds. He has the athleticism and floor spacing ability to give Brooklyn’s Jarrett Allen problems.
So who wins Nets vs. Cavaliers? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nets vs. Cavaliers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.