Rivals in a big competition for Western Conference playoff positioning face off on Saturday night when the Utah Jazz host the San Antonio Spurs. Tipoff is 8 p.m. ET with the latest Spurs vs. Jazz odds showing the Jazz as 7.5-point favorites, while the Over-Under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, set at 221. This is the third matchup of the season between these teams — each won and covered on the home floor. The matchup appears even on paper, but the SportsLine Projection Model’s numbers strongly back one side. Before locking any Spurs vs. Jazz picks of your own, you’ll first want to see these NBA predictions from the model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 17 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 200-146 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 17 on a blistering 35-19 run. Anybody following it is way up. 

Now, it has analyzed all relevant data and crunched the numbers for Spurs vs. Jazz. We can tell you it’s leaning Under, but it’s also generated a strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations, showing massive value to one side. That pick is available only at SportsLine. 

The Jazz are led by the dynamic guard-center combo of Donovan Mitchell (22.4 ppg) and Rudy Gobert (15.1 ppg, 12.8 rpg), but forward Joe Ingles is having a career year at age 31. He’s averaging 11.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game, all career-bests, and had 15 points and 11 assists in Wednesday’s 116-88 win over the Suns.

The Jazz are 17-10 at home this season, while the Spurs are 10-18 on the road, and they rolled the Spurs 139-105 the last time they visited Utah on Dec. 4. San Antonio is a decent 16-11 against the spread as an underdog, but when the spread is between +5 and +8, it’s 1-6 ATS. 

But just because Utah is on a roll and at home doesn’t mean it will cover the Spurs vs. Jazz spread on Saturday.

San Antonio did not fare well the last time the game was in Utah, but it could have been an anomaly. The Jazz hit a ridiculous 20 3-pointers, while DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, who each average 21 ppg, were held to 16 apiece. Jakob Ploeltl actually led the Spurs with 20 points.

DeRozan and Aldridge combined for 46 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists, and Rudy Gay added 23 points and 15 boards the last time these teams met, a 110-97 victory Dec. 9 in Texas. San Antonio is also a rock-solid 15-6 against the spread when it plays teams with a .550 win percentage or higher. Utah (.564) qualifies.

Who wins Spurs vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you should be all over Saturday, from the model that’s up more than $4,000 on NBA picks this season.

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