Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers play host to Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Friday, and tipoff from the Wells Fargo Center is set for 7 p.m. ET. Denver heads in as the No. 2 seed in the West, while the 76ers recently fell to the No. 5 seed in the East. These teams faced off two weeks ago in Denver, and the Nuggets cruised to a 16-point victory. Embiid didn’t suit up for that game, and with this one taking place in Philly, the Sixers could have a better showing. Philadelphia is listed as a 4.5-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 230.5 in the latest 76ers vs. Nuggets odds. Before you make any 76ers vs. Nuggets picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 17 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 200-146 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 17 on a blistering 35-19 run. Anybody following it is way up.   

Now it has locked in on Nuggets vs. Sixers. We can tell you it’s leaning over, but it has also locked in a confident against-the-spread pick that hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model is well aware of what a different matchup it is to face the Nuggets at home as opposed to on the road. Denver owns the NBA’s best home record at 23-4, but has been beatable on the road at 14-13. The Nuggets have covered the spread in just one of their past seven road contests. In addition to playing this one at home, Philadelphia also will have a healthy Embiid for the rematch. The big man has been on an absolute tear lately, averaging 30 points, 15 rebounds, four assists and two blocks over the past 10 days. The Sixers are just 1-3 in games Embiid has missed this season, and his absence was the key factor in their loss at Denver. 

Without Embiid there to defend Jokic, the Joker was allowed to completely dominate the game. Jokic finished that game with 32 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists. Jimmy Butler also missed that game, but will play Friday. The Sixers also will have recently acquired power forward Tobias Harris for this game. Harris was enjoying a career year with the Clippers before this week’s trade, averaging 21 points and eight rebounds. With all the additional firepower available this time around, expect things to go differently in this matchup.

Just because Philadelphia revamped its roster before this game, doesn’t mean it will cover the 76ers vs. Nuggets spread. 

The model is also well aware that the Nuggets are finally getting healthy. Will Barton was re-inserted into the rotation over a week ago, while Jamal Murray made his return to the court Wednesday. Paul Millsap is questionable and could return after missing the past two games with ankle soreness. 

Mason Plumlee has been terrific while filling in for Millsap, averaging 20 points, nine rebounds and three assists. Denver was on a six-game winning streak before Millsap’s injury, and with the Nuggets finally getting healthy, they could get back to their winning ways.

So who wins Nuggets vs. 76ers? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nuggets vs. 76ers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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